| Component | Current RS | % 1D | % 1W | % 1M | % off 52W H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad Indices | |||||
| SPYS&P 500 | 50 | 0 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −1.18 |
| QQQNasdaq 100 | 42 | −0.2 | +0.35 | +0.6 | −3.97 |
| IWMRussell 2000 | 52 | 0 | +0.09 | −0.75 | −3 |
| DIADow 30 | 51 | −0.53 | −0.18 | −0.76 | −2.32 |
| Market Segments | |||||
| IWFLarge-cap Growth | 37 | −0.02 | +0.54 | −0.07 | −4.44 |
| IWDLarge-cap Value | 65 | −0.67 | −0.27 | +0.59 | −0.98 |
| MTUMMomentum | 33 | +1.82 | +1.72 | −1.07 | −11.79 |
| SPHBHigh Beta | 47 | +1.46 | +1.48 | +1.92 | −5.83 |
| SPLVLow Volatility | 41 | −0.66 | −0.45 | −1.99 | −5.18 |
| IWOSmall-cap Growth | 46 | +0.12 | −0.36 | −1.76 | −4.83 |
| IWNSmall-cap Value | 59 | +0.4 | +0.66 | +0.35 | −1.42 |
| Equal-Weight Sectors | |||||
| RSPS&P 500 Equal Weight | 53 | −0.48 | −0.77 | +0.19 | −1.98 |
| RSPTTechnology (EW) | 49 | −0.16 | −0.94 | +1.07 | −4.93 |
| RSPFFinancials (EW) | 76 | −0.95 | +0.07 | +0.87 | −0.95 |
| RSPNIndustrials (EW) | 36 | +0.2 | −1.61 | −4.88 | −6.52 |
| RSPHHealth Care (EW) | 95 | −1.11 | +0.03 | +6.6 | −1.94 |
| RSPDConsumer Discretionary (EW) | 42 | −0.71 | −2.17 | −3.83 | −7.93 |
| RSPSConsumer Staples (EW) | 48 | −0.74 | −1.47 | −0.31 | −7.43 |
| RSPUUtilities (EW) | 23 | +0.14 | +0.28 | −1.31 | −9.84 |
| RSPMMaterials (EW) | 51 | −0.27 | −1.03 | +0.77 | −3.14 |
| RSPGEnergy (EW) | 71 | −0.94 | +2.03 | +10.88 | −1.96 |
| RSPRReal Estate (EW) | 25 | −0.48 | −1.14 | −2.19 | −5.75 |
| RSPCCommunication Svcs (EW) | 39 | −1.61 | −1.48 | +1.37 | −10.67 |
| Sector SPDRs | |||||
| XLKTechnology | 48 | +0.7 | +0.86 | +1.05 | −5.76 |
| XLFFinancials | 72 | −0.79 | 0 | +0.5 | −0.85 |
| XLIIndustrials | 37 | +0.41 | −1.06 | −5.14 | −6.87 |
| XLVHealth Care | 75 | −1.04 | +0.17 | +4.26 | −2.91 |
| XLYConsumer Discretionary | 35 | −1.33 | −1.96 | −2.7 | −8.08 |
| XLPConsumer Staples | 40 | −0.8 | −1.02 | −0.62 | −6.17 |
| XLUUtilities | 26 | +0.12 | +0.82 | −0.69 | −9.87 |
| XLBMaterials | 47 | −0.34 | −1.39 | +0.52 | −3.23 |
| XLEEnergy | 72 | −0.87 | +2.2 | +10.14 | −2.23 |
| XLREReal Estate | 30 | −0.72 | −1.24 | −1.96 | −5.44 |
| XLCCommunication Svcs | 36 | −1.19 | −0.85 | +0.76 | −6.96 |
| Commodities | |||||
| GLDGold (GLD) | 44 | −0.84 | −0.52 | +4.39 | −20.19 |
| USOWTI Crude (USO) | 58 | −0.09 | +9.45 | +19.42 | −7.87 |
| SLVSilver (SLV) | 26 | −1.21 | −0.33 | +7.11 | −45.53 |
| Bitcoin | |||||
| BTC-USDBitcoin | 100 | −1.96 | +3.8 | +27.85 | −36.39 |
Monday, 7 September was Labor Day. The NYSE and Nasdaq were closed, and the US proxies in this brief show exactly that — SPY unchanged at 770.19, IWM unchanged at 296.01, QQQ down two-tenths at 717.54. There was no domestic price discovery to interpret. So the honest off-leash take today is not "what did the tape say," it is "what did the rest of the world do while we were out, and what is the reopen being asked to price."
Europe traded, and it traded almost exactly flat with a very opinionated interior. CNBC has the Stoxx 600 finishing a shade below the line: France's CAC 40 up 0.33% and Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.25%, against the FTSE 100 down 0.1% and the DAX down 0.25%. Underneath that calm surface, oil and gas led at +1.29% and technology added roughly 1.1%, while healthcare fell 0.94% and financial services fell 0.91%. Asia-Pacific finished higher. That is neither risk-on nor risk-off. It is the same barbell the US carried into the long weekend — energy and semis bid, banks and defensives sold — run one more session without us.
What the reopen actually has to price is a Fed being discussed in the wrong direction. Kevin Warsh used Jackson Hole to say underlying inflation has not "meaningfully improved" and that the Fed has "work to do." Friday's August payrolls print of +162,000 against a consensus near 53,000 finished the job: CME FedWatch has run somewhere between roughly 56% and 66% odds of a quarter-point hike on 16 September, Bank of America is carrying three increases and Barclays two before year-end. Governor Waller has publicly leaned toward holding, so this committee is genuinely split rather than merely cautious.
The curve reflects it. Coming out of Friday the 2-year sat near 4.37% — its highest since January 2025 — with the 5-year around 4.55% and the 10-year near 4.79%. August CPI lands Friday, 11 September at 8:30 ET, four sessions ahead of a decision that carries a fresh dot plot.
Here is the part worth sitting with: an index that is unchanged going into a coin-flip hike is not complacent, it is being carried by earnings rather than by the discount rate. That is a healthier configuration than 2022's. It is also a more brittle one, because it quietly removes the rate-cut cushion equity bulls have reflexively assumed for three years.
The most under-appreciated fact in this market is that "tech" has stopped being one trade. Application software has been in a private bear market all year — the so-called SaaSpocalypse erased roughly $2 trillion of software market capitalization in January and February alone, and bellwethers like Adobe and Salesforce now trade near half their early-2025 levels. Survey work circulating this year puts about 40% of IT budgets migrating out of seat-based subscriptions and into agentic platforms and token spend, with roughly 75% of a ~$450 billion reallocation landing in AI infrastructure. Software's problem is not the Fed. It is that the buyer changed what it is buying, and no amount of easing fixes that.
The other side of the same trade is what led into the weekend: memory, storage, semicap, optical components and compute rental. That bid is not purely demand — it is cost-push. DRAM pricing rose roughly 90% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, the three merchant suppliers have pivoted the overwhelming majority of output to HBM, and meaningful new capacity does not arrive until 2028–2029. Every training dollar now carries a fatter bill of materials. The market is paying enthusiastically for the sellers of that inflation and has not yet marked down the buyers of it.
This is where I would push back hardest on consensus. US forces began striking IRGC targets on 1 September, two supertankers were hit leaving the Strait of Hormuz on 31 August, and Iran claimed a strike on an unmanned US vessel on Sunday. Tehran has effectively closed the waterway, and its parliament speaker has said plainly that if Iran cannot export, no one will.
And yet the WTI proxy in our own data finished the day at -0.09% — flat. Gold fell 0.84% and silver fell 1.21%, extending a pullback from a three-month high near $4,700 that began the moment hike odds started climbing. Metals are trading the Fed, not the Gulf. That is a real, crowded assumption, and it is the cheapest thing to be wrong about this month. Underneath it, note that central banks bought a net 289 tonnes in Q2, the strongest second quarter on record and up 62% year over year — the price-insensitive bid has not gone anywhere.
Long/short gross exposure has come down to one of the lowest readings of the past year, yet net leverage is still around the 74th percentile: books are smaller, not shorter. Citadel Securities has flagged one-month equity financing spreads as wide as 138bp over SOFR, which is the plumbing telling you leverage demand is bumping into balance-sheet capacity. Breadth has genuinely improved — more than 60% of stocks beat the index in June and July, and equal-weight has led this year — but the top ten names still sit near 40% of the S&P.
Three things I would watch into the reopen. Whether Europe's split personality — energy and tech bid, banks and healthcare sold — survives contact with a US session. Whether Hormuz headlines start moving crude again rather than being absorbed without a mark. And whether the memory and AI-infrastructure bid broadens into the second derivatives — power, optics, packaging — or narrows back into the same handful of names it has lived in all year.
The bid here is a supply story wearing a demand costume: memory and storage pricing is being set by an HBM pivot that has locked up most merchant capacity, with no meaningful new fabs until 2028-2029. Semicap follows mechanically, because a shortage this structural is only solvable with equipment. Read strength in this group as an input-cost signal for everyone downstream, not purely as a growth signal.
Compute-rental and buildout names have been trading with the memory complex rather than with software, which is the clearest sign the market now prices them as capex-cycle industrials rather than as software multiples. That makes the theme unusually sensitive to the front end of the curve, since a September hike raises the cost of the debt funding these campuses. Watch financing terms and contract duration, not just booking announcements.
Co-packaged optics has crossed from conference demo to hyperscale deployment this year, and the argument driving it is power rather than bandwidth - vendor data puts a 1.6T co-packaged link at roughly a third of the power of a pluggable equivalent. Power per bit is becoming the binding design constraint inside AI clusters, which pulls spend toward the photonics layer largely independent of the macro.
The optical module cycle is running hotter than almost anything else in hardware, with LightCounting sizing 2026 near $26 billion, up roughly 60% year over year, and 800G-and-above passing 60% of shipments. The theme's risk is not demand but timing: the 800G-to-1.6T transition is gated by switch-silicon availability, so one ecosystem slip can strand a quarter's worth of inventory.
Nuclear did not lead on its own today, but the power-procurement theme it belongs to kept showing up around the edges - oil and gas was the strongest sector in Europe, and on-site generation has been trading with the AI complex rather than with utilities. Hyperscalers have contracted more nuclear capacity in eighteen months than the US did in the prior two decades, which makes grid constraint an AI-buildout variable rather than a policy one.
The largest percentage gains in the most recent full US session came out of building products and concrete services, a cohort priced for an affordability winter all year. The move looks earnings-driven rather than rate-driven, since mortgage rates have backed up rather than fallen - which is what makes it interesting. It argues estimates were cut too far, not that the housing cycle has turned.
Farm equipment has spent years in a down-cycle on soft crop economics and a used-inventory overhang, and it produced an outsized gainer into the long weekend. One print is not a cycle, but dealer-channel exposure inflecting before the manufacturers is the usual order of operations when this group bottoms. Watchlist material, not a position.
Airlines were quietly green while an escalating Gulf conflict sat on the wires, which is not the reflex the group usually shows. Either the market believes the crude tape is capped near current levels, or it is looking through fuel costs to a demand set that has been persistently underestimated. Fragile logic, but the group is cheap enough that being early is not expensive.
Lease-to-own and subprime point-of-sale lenders have been left for dead on delinquency fears, and the group threw off one of the session's biggest gainers. Early signs of life here matter well beyond the names involved, because this cohort is a real-time read on the low-end consumer that arrives weeks ahead of the official data.