LIVE 17:00 PT
Fri · 25 Sep 2026
SPY772.34+0.67%
QQQ745.53+0.6%
IWM281.97+0.11%
I
Summary of Day Synthesis
Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm lift stocks as oil slides
▶

Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm lift stocks as oil slides

  • SPY rose 0.67% to 772.34 and QQQ gained 0.60% to 745.53, but IWM added only 0.11% to 281.97; the Dow led the majors, up 0.93%.
  • Oil fell on optimism around US/Iran talks: November WTI settled -2.33% at $92.41 and Brent -2.14% at $104.32, with USO down 3.11% to 148.33.
  • Precious metals firmed as GLD rose 0.44% and SLV rose 0.9%, while the 10-Year Note sat at 5.18%.
  • MSFT rose 3.7% after Microsoft unveiled a Copilot "super app" combining coding, chat and agents, while META fell 3.3%.
  • HUM gained 4.6% on a Barclays upgrade to Overweight; AKAM held ~+5% after a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic.
  • August Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.0% vs. a -0.4% estimate, and Sept-final UMich Sentiment was 48.1 vs. 47.6 expected.
▶Context & Source Read
·Early gains evaporated shortly after the open as Treasury rates kept climbing, and the indices waffled between gains and losses before holding gains into the final hour.
·V.K. Brent staying north of $100 despite the pullback underscores investor skepticism that Washington will agree to Tehran's terms.
·V.K. The shift in attention away from Muse to Microsoft's Copilot triggered profit taking in Meta, though Copilot has been around for a while and targets a particularly competitive enterprise segment.
·V.K. Bears argue secular upward pressure on yields won't dissipate, leaving stocks facing a "new normal" of elevated borrowing costs, and that AI product hype has distracted from delayed IPOs, huge cash burn and data center moratoriums.
·Leadership came from tech, travel/leisure, managed care, payments and capital goods; exchanges, cable, consumer staples, energy, utilities and REITs lagged.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
V.K.
Stocks traded decently thanks to Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm.
Brent pulled back a bit but is still north of $100, underscoring investor skepticism.
The shift in attention away from Muse triggered profit taking in Meta shares.
H.S.
Early gains evaporated shortly after the open as Treasury rates continued their upward trajectory, and the indices waffled between gains and losses.
The Fear and Greed Index stayed in Fear territory at 38/100 versus 30 last week.
II
Price Performance Data
Benchmark: RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight). Its VARS is zero by definition, since it is what everything else is measured against.
▶
Sort by
ComponentRSVARS 211D %1W %1M %% 52W HATR ExtVARS 5
Broad Indicesfixed order, not sorted
SPYS&P 500 63+6.54+0.7+1.3+0.7−1.0+1.5+2.01
RSPS&P 500 Equal WeightBENCHMARK 43+0.00+0.4−0.6−5.0−5.5−3.3+0.00
QQQNasdaq 100 74+9.30+0.6+3.2+4.7−0.6+3.3+2.93
IWMRussell 2000 42+0.98+0.1−0.7−5.7−7.6−3.4+0.08
DIADow 30 43+2.52+0.9+0.3−3.1−5.4−2.0+0.97
Market Segmentssorted by RS, highest to lowest
SPHBHigh Beta 80+7.43+1.1+3.8+2.9−2.8+2.3+2.44
MTUMMomentum 69+8.53+0.3+2.9+4.8−7.8+2.1+2.12
IWDLarge-cap Value 68+2.64+0.5+0.1−2.5−3.2−1.2+0.75
IWFLarge-cap Growth 52+8.62+0.5+2.4+3.7−2.2+2.6+2.42
IWNSmall-cap Value 50+1.17+0.2−1.0−4.8−6.3−3.6−0.20
IWOSmall-cap Growth 37+1.41+0.0−0.5−6.5−9.2−3.1+0.33
SPLVLow Volatility 21−0.49+0.3−1.8−6.0−9.5−5.9−1.28
Unranked
Sector SPDRssorted by RS, highest to lowest
XLKTechnology 91+9.72+0.8+3.5+7.3−1.2+3.6+2.54
XLEEnergy 81+5.99−0.9−3.5−0.6−6.2+0.2−1.08
XLVHealth Care 66+5.17+0.5+1.4−1.6−3.3+1.2+1.62
XLBMaterials 33+1.25+0.2−0.4−7.2−8.1−2.6+0.37
XLFFinancials 33+1.07+0.6−1.8−5.9−6.4−3.1−0.70
XLIIndustrials 33+2.07+0.9+0.4−5.5−9.4−3.3+0.93
XLCCommunication Svcs 31+6.07−0.9+1.9+0.3−6.2+0.9+1.77
XLPConsumer Staples 28+2.14+0.4−0.9−4.9−9.0−2.7−0.10
XLREReal Estate 23−0.70−0.2−2.3−7.8−10.5−5.4−1.24
XLYConsumer Discretionary 17+2.00+0.2−0.4−5.6−11.6−2.7+0.36
XLUUtilities 8−0.25+0.4−3.9−9.2−17.3−6.2−1.94
Unranked
Commoditiessorted by RS, highest to lowest
USOWTI Crude 98+11.11−3.1−3.6+16.5−9.2+2.4−0.43
DBCBroad Commodity Index 91+10.99−1.7−0.9+7.0−3.4+3.5+0.04
ETHEthereum 83+8.29+0.1+9.9+10.0−43.5+3.9+3.57
BTCBitcoin 68+8.21+0.0+10.5+7.5−33.2+4.1+4.28
SLVSilver 55+4.39+0.9−3.0−5.6−47.1+0.4−0.29
GLDGold 33+2.47+0.4−1.9−6.6−22.8−0.3−0.38
UUPUS Dollar Index 33+11.93−0.2+0.8+2.1−0.4+3.7+2.82
HYGHigh Yield Corp Bond 21−2.88+0.0−0.9−2.6−4.3−5.4−1.96
UNGNatural Gas 11+8.50−3.6+6.9+6.9−34.6+2.4+3.04
TLT20+ Year Treasury 9+0.35−0.1−2.4−4.8−14.0−3.9−1.91
URAUranium 8+1.79+0.1−1.8−14.9−34.3−1.5+0.17
Unranked
Thematic ETFs83 tracked · sorted by RS, highest to lowest
1ARKGARK Genomics 99+8.25−0.3+3.3+7.9−1.1+4.4+1.55
2USOUS Oil Fund 98+11.11−3.1−3.6+16.5−9.2+2.4−0.43
3EWYSouth Korea Equities 97+7.29+2.5+3.2+4.5−15.3+1.9+1.54
4SMHVanEck Semiconductor 95+9.14+1.0+5.9+9.1−9.7+2.5+2.62
5SVIXShort VIX Futures (Volatility) 94+8.08+1.8+2.9+6.1−0.9+3.6+1.70
6BOATGlobal Shipping 93+9.15−0.7−4.3+6.2−5.7+3.2−1.52
7CIBRCybersecurity Software & Infra 92+8.65−2.2+1.1+7.8−3.2+1.8+0.96
8SKYYCloud Computing 91+7.18−1.3+1.6+3.0−2.8+2.5+1.31
9WCLDCloud Tech 89+5.96−2.6+0.1+0.5−7.5+1.1+0.63
10ETHAEther Spot 88+8.30−0.1+2.0+8.9−43.6+5.2+1.15
11QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI 87+7.71+0.8+4.0+3.3−9.6+1.9+2.49
12COPXCopper Miners 86+3.17+0.6−0.6−9.2−13.3+0.1+0.48
13SOLZSolana Spot 85+11.63+4.1+6.5+25.7−51.7+6.7+2.21
14IBBBiotech Megacap 83+4.83+0.2+2.5−2.5−3.4+2.0+2.00
15AIQAI Software & Data Processing 82+8.38+0.0+2.9+4.6−6.1+3.1+2.20
16XOPOil & Gas E&P 81+5.70−1.4−4.8−1.6−9.7−0.2−1.25
17XBIBiotech (Equal-Weight) 80+2.93−0.7−1.1−7.9−8.7−0.6+0.34
18PBEDynamic Biotech 79+5.43+0.0+2.5−0.8−1.6+2.0+2.31
19XHSHealthcare Facilities & Services 77+4.53+1.2−0.9−2.0−3.5−0.1+0.00
20OIHLarge-Cap Oil Services 76+5.16−0.1−1.3−2.8−14.3−1.0+0.17
21SILSilver Miners 75+3.71+0.7−3.8−9.0−23.2+0.6−0.26
22GDXGold Miners 74+3.37+0.6−2.7−9.3−20.7+0.9−0.08
23XPHPharmaceuticals (Equal-Weight) 73+0.94−0.5−1.3−9.2−11.1−2.6+0.15
24BUZZSocial Media 72+9.33−0.7+3.4+7.7−4.7+3.9+2.15
25MAGSMagnificent 7 70+10.65+0.2+3.1+7.5−1.1+4.0+2.53
26GNRNatural Resources 69+3.66−0.5−2.0−3.4−6.1+0.0−0.79
27IBITBitcoin Spot 68+8.18−0.5+3.4+7.0−33.8+4.8+1.62
28XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight) 67+5.03−1.7−0.8−2.1−7.4+0.3+0.25
29DTCRGlobal X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure 66+5.20−0.4−0.7−1.8−15.1−0.4+0.25
30IGVUS Tech/Software 64+7.24−1.1+1.6+3.5−10.0+1.8+1.21
31FDNUS Internet Giants 63+6.68−0.3+1.2+1.2−2.5+1.6+1.38
32KUREChina Health 62+4.65+0.8+2.0−2.0−12.9+1.1+1.52
33GUNRUpstream Natural Resources 61+2.86−0.4−2.3−4.5−7.3−0.9−1.00
34DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity 60+4.21+5.1−2.2−11.4−58.0+0.7+0.26
35CNBSCannabis 58+7.44−0.4+4.4+4.2−32.8+2.6+2.18
36FCGNatural Gas E&P 57+4.40−2.1−4.1−4.6−11.6−1.2−1.06
37ROBOROBO Global Robotics & Automation 56+6.04+0.8+3.3−0.1−10.4+0.5+2.50
38SLVSilver 55+4.39+0.9−3.0−5.6−47.1+0.4−0.29
39EWZBrazil Equities 54+7.64−0.2−1.9+3.1−12.4+0.8−0.20
40PPHLarge-Cap Pharmaceutical 52+3.91+0.2+0.2−3.9−5.6−0.4+0.75
41XHEHealth Devices 51+3.24+0.4+0.3−4.6−6.5−0.6+0.89
42ARKFARK Fintech 50+6.52−1.1+2.5+1.5−20.8+2.6+1.53
43GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure 49+5.84+0.7+0.7−0.7−10.2−0.2+1.05
44ARKXARK Space & Defense Innovation 48+6.43−0.2+1.8+0.8−13.7+0.6+1.49
45GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos 46−0.08−0.1−1.1−8.3−9.6−3.4−0.22
46MOOGlobal Agricultural Producers 45+4.68−0.1−1.6−2.1−6.7−0.6−0.53
47KCECapital Markets & Financial Services 44+0.30+0.3−1.2−8.2−9.3−2.7−0.07
48BLOKBlockchain 43+6.24−1.1−1.0+1.2−15.4+1.2+0.26
49XRPIXRP Spot 42+8.45+2.9+10.8+12.9−54.8+4.0+2.61
50AMLPEnergy MLPs 40+2.43−0.7−3.5−4.4−6.0−2.7−2.23
51DRIVGlobal X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles 39+4.91+0.6+0.4−1.8−21.3−1.1+0.83
52XMEMetals & Mining 38+2.72+0.3−0.3−10.0−20.2−1.0+0.53
53AGNGGlobal X Aging Population 37+1.68+0.4−0.1−4.9−6.6−2.0+0.57
54KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking 36+3.43+0.9−1.6−4.1−8.7−2.8−0.32
55IAIBroker-Dealers 34+1.39−0.1−2.1−7.2−8.7−2.6−0.50
56GLDGold 33+2.47+0.4−1.9−6.6−22.8−0.3−0.38
57PPLTPlatinum 32+5.19+1.2−1.3−3.1−38.5+0.6+0.25
58PAVEGlobal X US Infrastructure Development 31+3.07+0.8+1.0−4.9−11.5−2.9+1.24
59LITLithium & Battery 30+0.91+0.3−2.1−9.1−25.0−2.6−0.49
60JETSUS Global Jets (Airlines) 28+4.88+1.8+2.7−2.6−14.9−1.3+1.76
61HEROGlobal X Video Games & Esports 27+5.68−0.1−0.1−0.9−21.5+0.3+0.61
62BOTZGlobal X Robotics & AI 26+5.65+0.5+0.8−0.6−15.1−0.5+1.18
63ORBXGlobal X Space Tech 25+7.04+0.8+3.3+2.8−45.1+0.5+1.61
64IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech 24+1.17+0.8+0.0−8.7−18.7−2.7+0.66
65PEJLeisure & Travel 23−0.78+0.5+0.8−8.6−10.3−3.7+1.26
66ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy 21+5.01+1.5−1.9−2.5−27.5−1.4−0.20
67FXILarge Cap China 20+2.70−0.8−1.0−4.5−19.1−2.8−0.12
68MILNGlobal X Millennial Consumer 19−0.58+0.7−0.3−8.6−14.5−3.9+0.44
69SHLDGlobal X Defense Tech 18+1.77−0.2−1.9−7.0−21.7−3.4−0.56
70XRTSPDR S&P Retail 17+2.31+0.5+0.5−6.5−11.8−3.3+0.96
71PALLPalladium 15+5.07−0.1−3.0−4.2−41.8−1.3−0.28
72EBIZGlobal X E-Commerce 14+0.32−0.3−1.3−7.8−21.8−4.6−0.20
73XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense 13+1.52+0.0−0.2−10.2−19.6−4.5+0.58
74DRAMMemory 12+8.06+2.0+3.9+9.8−23.9+2.3+1.49
75UNGNatural Gas 11+8.50−3.6+6.9+6.9−34.6+2.4+3.04
76XHBSPDR S&P Homebuilders 9+2.72+1.6+2.0−7.2−20.1−2.7+1.53
77URAUranium 8+1.79+0.1−1.8−14.9−34.3−1.5+0.17
78URNMUranium Miners 7+0.32+0.0−2.4−19.5−42.2−2.2+0.02
79BETZSports Betting 6−1.11−0.3−4.6−11.2−29.8−5.3−1.93
80REMXRare Earths 5+0.66−0.4−3.5−14.6−40.2−3.3−0.57
81TANInvesco Solar 3+2.66+1.4−3.5−9.7−41.7−3.8−0.54
82NLRNuclear Power 2+1.52−0.4−1.8−14.5−37.1−2.3+0.10
83KWEBKraneShares CSI China Internet 1+2.67−0.4−1.0−6.5−43.3−4.4+0.10
Unranked
Biggest Moverslargest RS rank changes across all 83, incl. names outside the visible listMeasures RS rank
CLIMBING FASTEST
▲DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity14 spots48 → 34
▲ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy7 spots73 → 66
▲GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure6 spots49 → 43
▲QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI6 spots17 → 11
▲DRAMMemory5 spots79 → 74
FALLING FASTEST
▼GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos10 spots35 → 45
▼UNGNatural Gas8 spots67 → 75
▼XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight)7 spots21 → 28
▼FCGNatural Gas E&P6 spots30 → 36
▼AMLPEnergy MLPs5 spots45 → 50
Price Performance
Sorted by RS, strongest first
Broad Indicesfixed order
SPYS&P 50063+6.54+0.7+1.3+0.7−1.0+1.5+2.01
RSPS&P 500 Equal Weight43+0.00+0.4−0.6−5.0−5.5−3.3+0.00
QQQNasdaq 10074+9.30+0.6+3.2+4.7−0.6+3.3+2.93
IWMRussell 200042+0.98+0.1−0.7−5.7−7.6−3.4+0.08
DIADow 3043+2.52+0.9+0.3−3.1−5.4−2.0+0.97
Market Segmentssorted
SPHBHigh Beta80+7.43+1.1+3.8+2.9−2.8+2.3+2.44
MTUMMomentum69+8.53+0.3+2.9+4.8−7.8+2.1+2.12
IWDLarge-cap Value68+2.64+0.5+0.1−2.5−3.2−1.2+0.75
IWFLarge-cap Growth52+8.62+0.5+2.4+3.7−2.2+2.6+2.42
IWNSmall-cap Value50+1.17+0.2−1.0−4.8−6.3−3.6−0.20
IWOSmall-cap Growth37+1.41+0.0−0.5−6.5−9.2−3.1+0.33
SPLVLow Volatility21−0.49+0.3−1.8−6.0−9.5−5.9−1.28
Unranked
Sector SPDRssorted
XLKTechnology91+9.72+0.8+3.5+7.3−1.2+3.6+2.54
XLEEnergy81+5.99−0.9−3.5−0.6−6.2+0.2−1.08
XLVHealth Care66+5.17+0.5+1.4−1.6−3.3+1.2+1.62
XLBMaterials33+1.25+0.2−0.4−7.2−8.1−2.6+0.37
XLFFinancials33+1.07+0.6−1.8−5.9−6.4−3.1−0.70
XLIIndustrials33+2.07+0.9+0.4−5.5−9.4−3.3+0.93
XLCCommunication Svcs31+6.07−0.9+1.9+0.3−6.2+0.9+1.77
XLPConsumer Staples28+2.14+0.4−0.9−4.9−9.0−2.7−0.10
XLREReal Estate23−0.70−0.2−2.3−7.8−10.5−5.4−1.24
XLYConsumer Discretionary17+2.00+0.2−0.4−5.6−11.6−2.7+0.36
XLUUtilities8−0.25+0.4−3.9−9.2−17.3−6.2−1.94
Unranked
Commoditiessorted
USOWTI Crude98+11.11−3.1−3.6+16.5−9.2+2.4−0.43
DBCBroad Commodity Index91+10.99−1.7−0.9+7.0−3.4+3.5+0.04
ETHEthereum83+8.29+0.1+9.9+10.0−43.5+3.9+3.57
BTCBitcoin68+8.21+0.0+10.5+7.5−33.2+4.1+4.28
SLVSilver55+4.39+0.9−3.0−5.6−47.1+0.4−0.29
GLDGold33+2.47+0.4−1.9−6.6−22.8−0.3−0.38
UUPUS Dollar Index33+11.93−0.2+0.8+2.1−0.4+3.7+2.82
HYGHigh Yield Corp Bond21−2.88+0.0−0.9−2.6−4.3−5.4−1.96
UNGNatural Gas11+8.50−3.6+6.9+6.9−34.6+2.4+3.04
TLT20+ Year Treasury9+0.35−0.1−2.4−4.8−14.0−3.9−1.91
URAUranium8+1.79+0.1−1.8−14.9−34.3−1.5+0.17
Unranked
Thematic ETFs83 tracked
1ARKGARK Genomics99+8.25−0.3+3.3+7.9−1.1+4.4+1.55
2USOUS Oil Fund98+11.11−3.1−3.6+16.5−9.2+2.4−0.43
3EWYSouth Korea Equities97+7.29+2.5+3.2+4.5−15.3+1.9+1.54
4SMHVanEck Semiconductor95+9.14+1.0+5.9+9.1−9.7+2.5+2.62
5SVIXShort VIX Futures (Volatility)94+8.08+1.8+2.9+6.1−0.9+3.6+1.70
6BOATGlobal Shipping93+9.15−0.7−4.3+6.2−5.7+3.2−1.52
7CIBRCybersecurity Software & Infra92+8.65−2.2+1.1+7.8−3.2+1.8+0.96
8SKYYCloud Computing91+7.18−1.3+1.6+3.0−2.8+2.5+1.31
9WCLDCloud Tech89+5.96−2.6+0.1+0.5−7.5+1.1+0.63
10ETHAEther Spot88+8.30−0.1+2.0+8.9−43.6+5.2+1.15
11QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI87+7.71+0.8+4.0+3.3−9.6+1.9+2.49
12COPXCopper Miners86+3.17+0.6−0.6−9.2−13.3+0.1+0.48
13SOLZSolana Spot85+11.63+4.1+6.5+25.7−51.7+6.7+2.21
14IBBBiotech Megacap83+4.83+0.2+2.5−2.5−3.4+2.0+2.00
15AIQAI Software & Data Processing82+8.38+0.0+2.9+4.6−6.1+3.1+2.20
16XOPOil & Gas E&P81+5.70−1.4−4.8−1.6−9.7−0.2−1.25
17XBIBiotech (Equal-Weight)80+2.93−0.7−1.1−7.9−8.7−0.6+0.34
18PBEDynamic Biotech79+5.43+0.0+2.5−0.8−1.6+2.0+2.31
19XHSHealthcare Facilities & Services77+4.53+1.2−0.9−2.0−3.5−0.1+0.00
20OIHLarge-Cap Oil Services76+5.16−0.1−1.3−2.8−14.3−1.0+0.17
21SILSilver Miners75+3.71+0.7−3.8−9.0−23.2+0.6−0.26
22GDXGold Miners74+3.37+0.6−2.7−9.3−20.7+0.9−0.08
23XPHPharmaceuticals (Equal-Weight)73+0.94−0.5−1.3−9.2−11.1−2.6+0.15
24BUZZSocial Media72+9.33−0.7+3.4+7.7−4.7+3.9+2.15
25MAGSMagnificent 770+10.65+0.2+3.1+7.5−1.1+4.0+2.53
26GNRNatural Resources69+3.66−0.5−2.0−3.4−6.1+0.0−0.79
27IBITBitcoin Spot68+8.18−0.5+3.4+7.0−33.8+4.8+1.62
28XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight)67+5.03−1.7−0.8−2.1−7.4+0.3+0.25
29DTCRGlobal X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure66+5.20−0.4−0.7−1.8−15.1−0.4+0.25
30IGVUS Tech/Software64+7.24−1.1+1.6+3.5−10.0+1.8+1.21
31FDNUS Internet Giants63+6.68−0.3+1.2+1.2−2.5+1.6+1.38
32KUREChina Health62+4.65+0.8+2.0−2.0−12.9+1.1+1.52
33GUNRUpstream Natural Resources61+2.86−0.4−2.3−4.5−7.3−0.9−1.00
34DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity60+4.21+5.1−2.2−11.4−58.0+0.7+0.26
35CNBSCannabis58+7.44−0.4+4.4+4.2−32.8+2.6+2.18
36FCGNatural Gas E&P57+4.40−2.1−4.1−4.6−11.6−1.2−1.06
37ROBOROBO Global Robotics & Automation56+6.04+0.8+3.3−0.1−10.4+0.5+2.50
38SLVSilver55+4.39+0.9−3.0−5.6−47.1+0.4−0.29
39EWZBrazil Equities54+7.64−0.2−1.9+3.1−12.4+0.8−0.20
40PPHLarge-Cap Pharmaceutical52+3.91+0.2+0.2−3.9−5.6−0.4+0.75
41XHEHealth Devices51+3.24+0.4+0.3−4.6−6.5−0.6+0.89
42ARKFARK Fintech50+6.52−1.1+2.5+1.5−20.8+2.6+1.53
43GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure49+5.84+0.7+0.7−0.7−10.2−0.2+1.05
44ARKXARK Space & Defense Innovation48+6.43−0.2+1.8+0.8−13.7+0.6+1.49
45GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos46−0.08−0.1−1.1−8.3−9.6−3.4−0.22
46MOOGlobal Agricultural Producers45+4.68−0.1−1.6−2.1−6.7−0.6−0.53
47KCECapital Markets & Financial Services44+0.30+0.3−1.2−8.2−9.3−2.7−0.07
48BLOKBlockchain43+6.24−1.1−1.0+1.2−15.4+1.2+0.26
49XRPIXRP Spot42+8.45+2.9+10.8+12.9−54.8+4.0+2.61
50AMLPEnergy MLPs40+2.43−0.7−3.5−4.4−6.0−2.7−2.23
51DRIVGlobal X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles39+4.91+0.6+0.4−1.8−21.3−1.1+0.83
52XMEMetals & Mining38+2.72+0.3−0.3−10.0−20.2−1.0+0.53
53AGNGGlobal X Aging Population37+1.68+0.4−0.1−4.9−6.6−2.0+0.57
54KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking36+3.43+0.9−1.6−4.1−8.7−2.8−0.32
55IAIBroker-Dealers34+1.39−0.1−2.1−7.2−8.7−2.6−0.50
56GLDGold33+2.47+0.4−1.9−6.6−22.8−0.3−0.38
57PPLTPlatinum32+5.19+1.2−1.3−3.1−38.5+0.6+0.25
58PAVEGlobal X US Infrastructure Development31+3.07+0.8+1.0−4.9−11.5−2.9+1.24
59LITLithium & Battery30+0.91+0.3−2.1−9.1−25.0−2.6−0.49
60JETSUS Global Jets (Airlines)28+4.88+1.8+2.7−2.6−14.9−1.3+1.76
61HEROGlobal X Video Games & Esports27+5.68−0.1−0.1−0.9−21.5+0.3+0.61
62BOTZGlobal X Robotics & AI26+5.65+0.5+0.8−0.6−15.1−0.5+1.18
63ORBXGlobal X Space Tech25+7.04+0.8+3.3+2.8−45.1+0.5+1.61
64IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech24+1.17+0.8+0.0−8.7−18.7−2.7+0.66
65PEJLeisure & Travel23−0.78+0.5+0.8−8.6−10.3−3.7+1.26
66ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy21+5.01+1.5−1.9−2.5−27.5−1.4−0.20
67FXILarge Cap China20+2.70−0.8−1.0−4.5−19.1−2.8−0.12
68MILNGlobal X Millennial Consumer19−0.58+0.7−0.3−8.6−14.5−3.9+0.44
69SHLDGlobal X Defense Tech18+1.77−0.2−1.9−7.0−21.7−3.4−0.56
70XRTSPDR S&P Retail17+2.31+0.5+0.5−6.5−11.8−3.3+0.96
71PALLPalladium15+5.07−0.1−3.0−4.2−41.8−1.3−0.28
72EBIZGlobal X E-Commerce14+0.32−0.3−1.3−7.8−21.8−4.6−0.20
73XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense13+1.52+0.0−0.2−10.2−19.6−4.5+0.58
74DRAMMemory12+8.06+2.0+3.9+9.8−23.9+2.3+1.49
75UNGNatural Gas11+8.50−3.6+6.9+6.9−34.6+2.4+3.04
76XHBSPDR S&P Homebuilders9+2.72+1.6+2.0−7.2−20.1−2.7+1.53
77URAUranium8+1.79+0.1−1.8−14.9−34.3−1.5+0.17
78URNMUranium Miners7+0.32+0.0−2.4−19.5−42.2−2.2+0.02
79BETZSports Betting6−1.11−0.3−4.6−11.2−29.8−5.3−1.93
80REMXRare Earths5+0.66−0.4−3.5−14.6−40.2−3.3−0.57
81TANInvesco Solar3+2.66+1.4−3.5−9.7−41.7−3.8−0.54
82NLRNuclear Power2+1.52−0.4−1.8−14.5−37.1−2.3+0.10
83KWEBKraneShares CSI China Internet1+2.67−0.4−1.0−6.5−43.3−4.4+0.10
Unranked
Biggest Moversrank change vs yesterday
CLIMBING FASTEST
▲DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity14 spots48 → 34
▲ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy7 spots73 → 66
▲GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure6 spots49 → 43
▲QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI6 spots17 → 11
▲DRAMMemory5 spots79 → 74
FALLING FASTEST
▼GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos10 spots35 → 45
▼UNGNatural Gas8 spots67 → 75
▼XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight)7 spots21 → 28
▼FCGNatural Gas E&P6 spots30 → 36
▼AMLPEnergy MLPs5 spots45 → 50
Legend
% 52W Hgreen at or above −2.9%, red at or below −18.0%, neutral in between. A LONG bar means FAR from the high.
ATR Extneutral below 3.0, yellow from 3.0 to 4.9, red at 5.0 and beyond, on the absolute value.
Movesgreen above zero, red below, neutral at exactly zero. Bars scale to the largest absolute value in that column within that group.
RSRS is a percentile rank of an IBD-style weighted composite (40% three-month, 20% each at six, nine and twelve months) measured against the benchmark. The composite subtracts the benchmark's return rather than dividing by it: dividing breaks when the benchmark return is near zero and inverts when it is negative. VARS uses the ATR as it stood on each historical bar, not today’s ATR.
III
Review of Key Themes Synthesis
4 themes: Iran deal hopes knock crude lower · AI product news splits big tech: Copilot up, Meta down · Stocks close green, but yields keep the pressure on · Security software leads the losers
▶
Iran deal hopes knock crude lower
Oil was the day's biggest macro mover. Talk of a US/Iran deal pushed crude down, and USO fell 3.11% to 148.33. Vital Knowledge noted that Brent stayed above $100, a sign that investors still doubt a deal will happen.
▶
Context & Source Read
·USO closed at 148.33, down 3.11%.
·November WTI crude settled down $2.20/bbl, or 2.33%, at $92.41. Brent settled down $2.28/bbl, or 2.14%, at $104.32, as optimism around US/Iran talks pushed prices lower.
·V.K. Tehran is pushing to return to the June MOU and has promised to start nuclear talks fairly quickly. Whether Washington will accept those terms is still unclear.
·V.K. Brent pulling back only a little and staying north of $100 underscores investor skepticism.
·V.K. Travel/leisure was among the outperformers and energy was among the underperformers.
·American Airlines (AAL) rose 3.9% to $13.87 and made the day's top-gainers list.
·December gold settled up $23.20/oz, or 0.54%, at $4,321.20. GLD rose 0.44% and SLV rose 0.9%.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
V.K.
Stocks traded decently thanks to Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm.
Brent pulled back a bit but is still north of $100, underscoring investor skepticism.
H.S.
November WTI crude settled -$2.20/bbl, or -2.33%, at $92.41 and Brent settled -$2.28/bbl, or -2.14%, at $104.32, as optimism around US/Iran talks pushed prices lower.
AI product news splits big tech: Copilot up, Meta down
Microsoft's new Copilot super app lifted MSFT 3.7%, while Meta fell 3.3%. Vital Knowledge said attention shifting away from Muse drove profit taking in Meta. Vital also warned that Copilot is not new and competes in a crowded enterprise market. Other AI-linked names were bid on deal news, and hardware and chip names filled the gainers list.
▶
Context & Source Read
·V.K. Microsoft unveiled a Copilot "super app" that combines coding, chat and agents in one interface for office workers.
·MSFT rose 3.7% to $516.17. META fell 3.3% to $751.66.
·V.K. Attention shifting away from Muse triggered profit taking in Meta. Copilot has been around for a while and targets a very competitive part of the market, the enterprise.
·AKAM held about 5% higher in the afternoon after announcing a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic. JBL rose after a filing said Akamai authorized Jabil to buy about $1.7B of memory components. AMD rose moderately after BofA raised its price target to $720 from $620.
·Chip and hardware names among the day's gainers: CRDO +7.7%, ON +5.5%, MCHP +5.4%, DELL +5%, SMCI +4.2%, QCOM +4%, ADI +2.9%.
·V.K. Tech was among the day's outperformers.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
V.K.
The shift in attention away from Muse triggered profit taking in Meta shares.
Vital cautions that Copilot has been around for a while already and is aimed at a particularly competitive market segment (the enterprise).
H.S.
AKAM held ~+5% higher in afternoon trading after announcing a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic.
Stocks close green, but yields keep the pressure on
Stocks ended higher: SPY rose 0.67% and QQQ rose 0.6%, but IWM gained only 0.11%. Early gains faded as Treasury yields kept climbing, and the indices swung between gains and losses before holding up into the close. Vital Knowledge laid out the bear case that high yields are here to stay.
▶
Context & Source Read
·SPY closed at 772.34 (+0.67%), QQQ at 745.53 (+0.6%) and IWM at 281.97 (+0.11%).
·Early gains faded shortly after the open as Treasury rates kept rising. The 10-year note was at 5.18%.
·By mid-morning, decliners led advancers 7:6 and 8 sectors were down against 3 up. Heading into the final hour, advancers led 10:7. The Fear and Greed Index stayed in Fear at 38/100, up from 30 last week.
·August durable goods orders were flat (0.0%) against an estimate of -0.4%; excluding transports they rose 0.3% against +0.6% expected. The final September University of Michigan sentiment reading was 48.1 against an estimate of 47.6.
·V.K. Bears argue the forces pushing yields up won't fade, leaving stocks to face a "new normal" of high borrowing costs. They add that AI product hype has distracted from bad news: delayed IPOs, heavy cash burn, data center moratoriums and Oracle's force majeure.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
H.S.
Early gains evaporated shortly after the open as Treasury rates continued their upward trajectory, and the indices waffled between gains and losses.
V.K.
Bears argue the secular forces placing upward pressure on yields aren't likely to dissipate, leaving stocks to grapple with a "new normal" of elevated borrowing costs.
Security software leads the losers
Cybersecurity names were among the day's biggest decliners. Zscaler led the group lower, and Okta, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare also fell.
▶
Context & Source Read
·ZS fell 10.1% to $193.05, OKTA fell 5.5% to $195.19, PANW fell 3.9% to $374.74, CRWD fell 2.9% to $252.13 and NET fell 2.7% to $349.02.
·Other software names were also lower: TWLO fell 8% to $275.8 and CRM fell 1.8% to $234.02.
IV
LLM Unfiltered Off-Leash
A broad, source-free read on the day — the unconstrained second opinion. ~5 min.
▶
≈ 5 min read · no curated sources · Open-web off-leash read — Claude with live web search (Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Bloomberg, Reuters/Semafor, Trading Economics, AAII, 24/7 Wall St., StockStory). Index/commodity figures anchored to the brief's stored data.

The tape: a green Friday built on a bond market that blinked

The headline is simple. It was an up day. SPY closed at 772.34 (+0.67%) and QQQ at 745.53 (+0.60%). The Dow did better still, up roughly 479 points (+0.93%) per Yahoo Finance, which snapped a three-week losing streak. All three major averages finished the week higher. The more telling number is IWM, up just +0.11% to 281.97. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive, debt-heavy part of the market, and they barely took part. That fits a market that is relieved but not yet convinced.

The relief came from the two inputs that have run this tape for most of September: long-dated yields and crude. The 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 on Thursday, at about 5.17–5.18%. On Friday it was roughly flat, near 5.16–5.17% according to CNBC and Trading Economics. That is not a rally in bonds. It is the selling pausing. BlackRock's Rick Rieder summed up the sell-off as "not a crisis but an eye-opener," and equities traded exactly that way: glad the pressure stopped building, but not pricing in lower rates.

Oil is the swing factor, and it swung the right way

Our USO line fell -3.11% to 148.33. On the open web, WTI settled near $92 and Brent slipped below $98. The catalyst was reporting from Bloomberg, Reuters and Semafor that US and Iranian negotiators, with Qatar mediating on the UN General Assembly sidelines, are exploring a phased deal: Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington eases its blockade of Iranian ports. Nothing is signed. Crude actually rose Thursday afternoon on the same headlines, and both sides are reluctant to give up leverage. Still, the market got a plausible path to lower energy prices, and on this tape that path runs straight through bond yields to equity multiples.

You could see the second-order winners in our movers list. An airline sat among the top gainers, a textbook fuel-cost trade. Gold (GLD +0.44%) and silver (SLV +0.90%) rose alongside stocks. That tells you the hedge bid has not gone away even as risk appetite improved.

The macro backdrop is still hawkish, so read the rally narrowly

Context matters. At its September 15–16 meeting, the Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023, and the dot plot's median projects one more hike this year. Warsh's line that "inflation is too high and has been for too long" is the regime this market is trading in. Friday's University of Michigan sentiment reading dropped to 48.1, a four-month low, with households citing roughly $4.50 gasoline and tariffs. That is a stagflation-flavored combination: weak confidence alongside sticky prices. It is why a single day of calmer yields produced a bounce, not a breakout.

On geopolitics, the Trump–Xi state visit ended with plans for an AI safety summit in Shenzhen in November but few concrete trade results. That was mildly constructive for sentiment toward semis and hardware, but not something to underwrite.

Sentiment and positioning: the contrarian case is real

The week's AAII survey (to Sept 23) had bears at 48.1% and bulls at 32.7%, a bull-bear spread of -15.4. The spread has been below its historical average for 10 straight weeks. Earlier in September, retail sentiment hit a 16-month low. When sentiment is this washed out and indexes still make weekly gains, the path of least resistance often tilts higher, since there are few sellers left to capitulate. The caveat: this pessimism rests on real fundamentals, 5%+ long yields and a hiking Fed, not just nerves.

Under the hood: a rotation *inside* tech, not out of it

The day's most useful signal is the dispersion in tech. Leadership came from analog/industrial semis and AI hardware. Microchip extended gains after launching new 48V digital power monitors, and onsemi, Analog Devices and Qualcomm all rose. Server and interconnect names climbed too. Bloom Energy kept up its roughly 40% run since late August, helped by S&P 500 inclusion and new price-target raises from UBS, Mizuho, RBC and BMO tied to its 800V fuel cells for AI data centers.

The losers were security software and the AI neocloud complex. Zscaler fell about 10% after its chief revenue officer, Mike Rich, stepped down (Ross Tackett takes over October 1). That dragged Okta, Palo Alto, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare lower. It comes less than two weeks after the group ripped double digits on AI-safety headlines (24/7 Wall St., Sept 14), so it reads as a crowded trade unwinding. Separately, 24/7 Wall St. reported that Citi questioned whether AI traffic actually pays off for edge networks, and GPU-cloud landlords slipped. Twilio lost 8%, and Meta and Salesforce were also lower.

The alternative read: the market is rewarding the *picks and shovels*, meaning power, silicon and interconnect with visible order books. It is marking down the *monetization layer*, where AI's payoff is still a promise and valuations are most exposed to 5% discount rates. Rising real yields punish long-dated cash flows first. If yields resume climbing, expect that split to widen, not reverse.

What to watch into next week

  • Hormuz headlines are now the single biggest driver of yields, through the oil-inflation link. A signed phase one would matter far more than any single data print.
  • The 10-year near 5.2%. A clean break higher would likely overwhelm the sentiment-driven bounce. A retreat below 5% would open the door for small caps to finally join in.
  • Breadth confirmation. The Dow outperformed and IWM lagged. A durable bottom needs the equal-weight and small-cap indexes to follow, not just mega-cap and hardware leaders.
Sub-Theme Drill-Down

Semiconductors

Leadership moved toward analog, power-management and mixed-signal chips. The web narrative centers on normalizing customer inventories and growing data-center and 48V power exposure. That is a cyclical-recovery bid layered on top of the AI trade, and it held up well on a day when yields stopped rising.

AI Infrastructure

The market split the stack. Hardware with visible demand (servers, on-site power, networking silicon) rallied, while GPU-cloud landlords and data-center REITs slipped. It is a quality filter, not an exit: investors are paying for order books and fading capital-heavy business models whose returns depend on financing costs near 5%.

optics

Interconnect silicon kept its bid as AI clusters scale, extending a year in which optical and connectivity names led the market. Some contract manufacturers in the chain gave back ground, so gains are concentrating in component IP rather than assembly.

Photonics

No fresh catalyst today. The group trades as a high-beta extension of the AI-optics trade, with year-to-date gains that leave it exposed if long yields break higher. The day's calm in yields was a mild support, not a driver.

Out-of-Favor · Perking Up

Airlines & fuel-sensitive transports

Talk of a phased Hormuz reopening pushed crude sharply lower, and carriers were among the day's standout gainers. This group has been crushed by record fuel prices. It is the most direct equity lever on any diplomatic progress, and just as exposed if talks stall.

Managed care & pharmacy services

Health insurers and pharmacy-benefit names posted solid gains in a tape otherwise led by tech. After a punishing stretch on cost trends, the group is drawing defensive, rate-insensitive buying as investors look for earnings that don't depend on AI multiples.

Analog / industrial chips

Long a laggard behind AI accelerators, and still well below spring highs per StockStory, the analog cohort is showing a multi-day bid on inventory-normalization and data-center power demand. It is early evidence that the chip cycle is widening beyond the AI leaders.

V
Top Movers Data
Top gainer AESI +13.5%·worst ONT −16.8%·across 3 cap bands
▶
Small/Mid$500M–$10B
Gainers
+13.5%
AESIfrac sand supplier
$12.47·$1.4B
+3.9%
AALairline
$13.87·$8.8B
Losers
−16.8%
ONTmanagement consulting
$14·$591M
−13.0%
BVCcrypto business
$11.35·$2.2B
−12.6%
KDKautonomous trucking
$2.43·$558M
−12.5%
TMSsmall-business acquirer
$8·$676M
Large$10B–$100B
Gainers
+8.3%
BEfuel cells
$288.70·$78.5B
+7.7%
CRDOAI connectivity chips
$210.97·$36.8B
+5.5%
ONpower semiconductors
$77.20·$28.5B
+5.4%
MCHPmicrocontrollers
$78.69·$40.6B
+4.6%
PYPLdigital payments
$55.04·$45.0B
+4.6%
HUMhealth insurer
$397.93·$45.7B
+4.4%
DDOGcloud monitoring
$268.13·$92.3B
+4.2%
SMCIAI servers
$43.26·$27.3B
Losers
−10.1%
ZScloud security
$193.05·$35.0B
−8.0%
TWLOcommunications APIs
$275.80·$46.0B
−5.5%
OKTAidentity security
$195.19·$36.1B
−4.4%
IRENAI cloud, bitcoin miner
$44.13·$18.2B
−4.3%
CRCLstablecoin issuer
$89·$23.6B
−2.8%
CRWVAI cloud
$87.59·$49.7B
−2.5%
NBISAI cloud
$237.33·$66.2B
−2.2%
CLSelectronics manufacturing
$365.44·$47.1B
Mega$100B+
Gainers
+5.0%
DELLPCs and servers
$562.89·$340.8B
+4.8%
CVSpharmacy, health insurer
$89.13·$108.8B
+4.2%
BKNGonline travel
$163.95·$118.3B
+4.0%
QCOMmobile chips
$201.97·$207.5B
+3.7%
MSFTsoftware, cloud
$516.17·$3.7T
+2.9%
COSTwarehouse retailer
$922.77·$397.6B
+2.9%
ADIanalog chips
$393.60·$185.4B
+2.8%
SKHYmemory chips
$191.56·$1.3T
Losers
−3.9%
PANWcybersecurity
$374.74·$319.0B
−3.4%
INTCchipmaker
$123·$673.4B
−3.3%
METAsocial media
$751.66·$2.0T
−2.9%
CRWDcybersecurity
$252.13·$265.9B
−2.7%
NETedge network, security
$349.02·$127.8B
−2.6%
EQIXdata-center REIT
$1,008.08·$102.1B
−2.0%
SHOPe-commerce platform
$142.25·$186.8B
−1.8%
CRMCRM software
$234.02·$196.1B
VI
Vital & Hammerstone Analysis Compile · V.K. · H.S.
V.K. · H.S. cut — MSFT · META · HUM · CMCSA · NKE · AKAM · JBL · AMD. Hammerstone live.
▶
Vital Knowledge · V.K.
  • Iran hopes + AI enthusiasm carry the tape
    Stocks traded decently thanks to Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm. Tehran is pushing for a return to the June MOU and promising to fairly quickly engage in negotiations over its nuclear program, but it remains to be seen whether Washington will agree to these terms. Brent pulled back a bit but is still north of $100, underscoring investor skepticism.
  • Leadership vs. laggards
    Outperformers included tech, travel/leisure, managed care, payments/consumer finance, insurance brokers, and capital goods. Underperformers included exchanges (CBOE was one of the weakest stocks in the whole market), cable, consumer staples (new 52w lows including CPB, HRL, POST), energy, utilities, and REITs.
  • MSFTMETACopilot steals Muse's thunder
    Microsoft shares rallied after the company unveiled its new Copilot "super app" combining coding, chat, and agents into one interface for office workers. The shift in attention away from Muse triggered profit taking in Meta shares. Vital cautions that Copilot has been around for a while already and is aimed at a particularly competitive market segment (the enterprise).
  • Bear case: yields, oil, AI fragility
    Bears argue the secular forces placing upward pressure on yields aren't likely to dissipate, leaving stocks to grapple with a "new normal" of elevated borrowing costs. They also flag that AI product hype has distracted from negative developments such as delayed IPOs, huge cash burn, data center moratoriums, and Oracle's force majeure.
  • HUMCMCSANKEStandout single names
    HUM was among the best performers in the entire S&P 500 on a Barclays upgrade to Overweight. CMCSA hit fresh 52w lows after KeyBanc downgraded it to Underweight. NKE was cut to Underperform by Bank of America as sentiment continues to deteriorate ahead of earnings (10/1).
  • Week of 9/28
    Key macro events are US PCE for Aug (Wed 9/30; the Street models headline and core steady at +3.7% and +3.3%), the manufacturing ISM (Thurs 10/1), and the Sept jobs report (Fri 10/2; the Street models a sharp slowdown to +100K vs. +162K in Aug). JBL (Wed morning) and MU (Wed night) report, and OpenAI's Dev Day keynote is Tues 9/29 at 1pmET.
Hammerstone · H.S.
  • Indices close higher, Dow leads
    The DJ Industrials rose 0.93% to 51,828.59, the S&P 500 gained 0.51% to 7,743.50, the Nasdaq added 0.48% to 27,068.72, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.31% to 2,844.32. Early gains evaporated shortly after the open as Treasury rates continued their upward trajectory, and the indices waffled between gains and losses.
  • Breadth and sentiment
    By mid-morning, breadth favored decliners 7:6 and sectors tilted negative, with 3 gaining versus 8 declining. Heading into the final hour, breadth favored advancers 10:7 and equities held gains broadly, though some larger-cap names were lower. The Fear and Greed Index stayed in Fear territory at 38/100 versus 30 last week.
  • Oil slides on Iran talk; gold up
    November WTI crude settled -$2.20/bbl, or -2.33%, at $92.41 and Brent settled -$2.28/bbl, or -2.14%, at $104.32, as optimism around US/Iran talks pushed prices lower. December gold settled +$23.20/oz, or +0.54%, at $4,321.20. The 10-Year Note was at 5.18%.
  • Economic data
    Durable Goods Orders for August came in at 0.0% versus an estimate of -0.4%, while Less Transports was +0.3% versus +0.6%. The Sept-final University of Michigan Sentiment reading was 48.1 versus an estimate of 47.6.
  • AKAMJBLAMDAI-linked standouts
    AKAM held ~+5% higher in afternoon trading after announcing a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic. JBL shares were aloft after a filing said Akamai authorized Jabil to buy about $1.7B of memory components. AMD lifted moderately after BofA raised its PT to $720 from $620.
▶Context & Source Read
·V.K. Vital frames the session as a two-driver tape: Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm. It also notes Brent still north of $100 as a sign of investor skepticism.
·V.K. Within AI, attention rotated from Meta's Muse to Microsoft's relaunched Copilot, and Vital flags OpenAI's Dev Day (Tues 9/29) as the next potential disruptor.
·H.S. Hammerstone's read is rates-driven: gains faded early as Treasury rates climbed, then equities held gains into the final hour even as sentiment stayed in Fear territory.
·H.S. Hammerstone shows crude settling lower on US/Iran optimism while gold rose, with rising rates cited as gold's remaining headwind.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
V.K.
stocks traded decently thanks to Iran deal hopes and AI product enthusiasm
While Brent pulled back a bit on Friday, the price is still north of $100, underscoring the skepticism investors have about this entire situation.
The secular forces placing upward pressure on yields aren’t likely to dissipate anytime soon, which means stocks will need to grapple with a “new normal” of elevated borrowing costs.
The AI boom isn’t showing any signs of cooling.
HUM (Humana) shares were among the best performing in the entire S&P 500 on Friday on back of a Barclays upgrade to Overweight
the Street is modeling a sharp slowdown to +100K in Sept vs. +162K in Aug
H.S.
Gains began to evaporate shortly after the open, though, and the indices waffled between gains and losses as Treasury rates continued their upward trajectory.
In sentiment today, the Fear and Greed Index remained in Fear territory at 38/100 versus 30 (Fear) last week, but well off last month’s 59 (Greed) level.
Heading into the final hour of trading, equities held gains broadly, though larger-cap names NVDA, META, NFLX and TSLA were lower.
Brent settled -$2.28/bbl, or -2.14%, at $104.32.
University of Michigan Sentiment, Sept-final 48.1 versus estimate 47.6.
VII
RIP Analysis Compile · RIP
RIP cut — MSFT · ORCL · BE · HUT · MCHP · DELL.
▶
  • Closing Bell: Losing Streak Snapped
    Stocks snapped a three-session losing streak Friday as falling crude and a late buying push carried the major averages near their highs. The Dow led the rebound, and eight of 11 sectors finished green. The 10-year Treasury yield still ended the week at 5.18%, up 24 basis points.
  • Narrow Leadership Under the Surface
    Jason Goepfert noted the market is within 1% of ATH, but only half of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200 day MA. The big names are climbing while the rest of the market is not keeping up.
  • MSFTAfter the Bell: Microsoft's Copilot Reboot
    Microsoft unveiled a full Copilot overhaul with three pillars: Home, a new Chat and Cowork hub; Code, a natural-language coding tool built on GitHub Copilot tech; and Autopilot, an always-on agent. The stock climbed +4% to $516. The new Code and Autopilot tools will bill on usage on top of standard seat licenses, and Code hits early access at month end.
  • Circle's CFO Exit Hits After Hours
    Circle said CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen plans to step down after more than five years and will remain through December or until a successor is appointed. The stock fell -4.3% to $89 during Friday's regular session, then dropped another -2.7% after hours to $86.59, roughly -7% below Thursday's close. Traders circled $85 as the next line in the sand.
  • ORCLBEOracle Force Majeure; Bloom Shakes It Off
    Oracle sent a force majeure notice to Stack Infrastructure over Project Jupiter after a gas pipeline for the campus's Bloom Energy fuel cells slipped from August 2026 to February 2027. $ORCL fell -3.5% Thursday, then another -1.7% to $137.10 Friday. $BE surged +8% to $289, the best performer in the S&P 500 per Barron's, after Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $310 target.
  • HUTMCHPDELLPops & Drops
    Hut 8 slipped -4.6% after winning a $140M bid for Poolin's Pyote and Tarbush data centers in Texas. Microchip rose +5.4% on new 48V digital power monitors. Dell closed +5% after launching a $999 XPS Googlebook built around Gemini.
▶Context & Source Read
·RIP The rebound came with a warning: rates did not leave the building. The 10-year still finished the week at 5.18%, and only half of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200 day MA while the index is within 1% of ATH.
·AI monetization is the common thread. Microsoft is stacking usage-based billing on top of seats, and Meta was up 16% this week, as the enterprise race with Meta, OpenAI and Anthropic speeds up.
·RIP AI infrastructure risk is shifting to power and financing. RIP framed the Oracle notice as payment protection against a construction delay, but 'Bondholders still heard delay' as Oracle's 30-year bond yield climbed to 8.16%.
·Levels to watch into next session: can $CRCL hold $85 after the CFO exit, and PayPal after it rallied on takeover rumors.
▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions
RIP
Stocks snapped a three-session losing streak Friday as falling crude and a late buying push carried the major averages near their highs.
The 10-year Treasury yield still ended the week at 5.18%, up 24 basis points, so rates did not exactly leave the building.
the market is within 1% of ATH, but only half of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200 day MA.
Microsoft is stacking usage-based charges on top of the seats companies already pay for, which is how Copilot stops being a feature and starts being a franchise.
Traders quickly circled $85 as the next line in the sand.
This is payment protection against a construction delay. Bondholders still heard delay.
It was a payment-timing scare. Nobody questioned the contract itself.
VIII
Gappers / Stocks in Play Awaiting Source
Awaiting gappers / stocks-in-play feed (from Jared).
▶
AWAITING SOURCE · gappers / stocks-in-play feed (from Jared)
IX
TL;DR Capstone
Green Friday led by the Dow as Iran deal hopes knocked oil lower and AI product news lifted tech, but small caps barely moved and 5.18% yields cap the relief.
▶
Green Friday led by the Dow as Iran deal hopes knocked oil lower and AI product news lifted tech, but small caps barely moved and 5.18% yields cap the relief.
  • Stocks closed higher (SPY +0.67%, QQQ +0.60%, Dow +0.93%), while IWM rose only 0.11%. Oil slid on US/Iran talk (WTI -2.33% to $92.41), but Brent held above $100 and the 10-Year sat at 5.18%, so the market is relieved but not convinced.
  • AI news split big tech: MSFT rose 3.7% on its Copilot 'super app' and META fell 3.3% as attention moved away from Muse. Security software led the losers, with ZS down 10.1%.
Themes in play
Iran deal hopes knock crude lowerAI product news splits big tech: MSFT up, META downStocks close green, but yields keep the pressure onSecurity software leads the losers
Stocks that matter
MSFTSoftware, cloud
Rose 3.7% after unveiling a Copilot 'super app' that combines coding, chat and agents, though Vital warns that Copilot isn't new and the enterprise market is crowded.
METASocial media
Fell 3.3% on profit taking as Copilot pulled attention away from Muse.
AKAMCloud and edge services
Held about 5% higher after a seven-year, $11.6 billion cloud services commitment from Anthropic, one of the day's clearest AI deal signals.
ZSCloud security
Fell 10.1% and led a broad cybersecurity selloff that also hit OKTA, PANW, CRWD and NET.
HUMHealth insurer
Rose 4.6% on a Barclays upgrade to Overweight, one of the best performers in the S&P 500 as managed care outperformed.
AALAirline
Rose 3.9% as a textbook fuel-cost trade on sliding crude. Watch whether the US/Iran deal talks hold.