Summary of Day Synthesis

Tech holds up as a late roll and 2002-high yields close out September

▶

Tech holds up as a late roll and 2002-high yields close out September

Stocks held gains for most of the session, then rolled over in the final minutes. SPY finished flat (+0.01%), QQQ led (+0.44%), IWM lagged (-0.4%) and the Dow fell 441 points (0.86%).
A cooler Aug core PCE (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus) lifted stocks early. Treasury yields kept climbing: the 10-year touched 5.304%, its highest since May 2002, and the 30-year rose to 5.65%.
Breadth was weak. The equal-weight S&P fell 72bp and ended September about 500bp behind the cap-weighted index.
Chip design and software led. SNPS rose 4.8% after announcing a $1B+ multi-year deal with Amazon and a pact with OpenAI. HPE gained 3.9% after raising its FY27 Networking revenue-growth guide to high-teens to low-20% (from 14-17%). INTC (+3.7%), ACN (+3.5%) and NOW (+3.1%) also rose.
JBL fell 10% despite beating on FQ4 (EPS $4.40 vs. $4.07; sales $10.6B vs. $9.7B). FICO fell 4.1% after BofA downgraded it to Neutral and cut its target to $700 from $1,400.
For the month, tech (XLK) was the only S&P sector in the green. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow fell 4.3% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%.

▶Context & Source Read

·V.K. The early PCE optimism faded fast. Investors saw much of the softness as driven by statistical methodology changes, noted very hot Eurozone Sept CPIs, and worried that a Fed hiking less than expected simply pushes long-end yields higher.

·V.K. The last day of September looked like the whole month: decent tech performance, very poor breadth and higher yields.

·V.K. JBL's slide on a beat reflects very modest margin weakness and extremely elevated expectations.

·H.S. The AI story is the main driver of the broader market, and tonight's Micron earnings are its next test.

·BofA clients sold US equities last week, led by $5.7B of single-stock outflows. Retail clients were net sellers for a 9th straight week, while hedge funds were net buyers for a 2nd week.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

V.K.

The final day of Sept closed out much as the entire month went: decent performance in tech, very poor breadth, and higher yields.

The cooler Aug PCE initially sparked some optimism, but that quickly faded as investors saw much of the downside as driven by statistical methodological changes, eyed the very hot Eurozone CPIs for Sept, and worried that indications the Fed might hike less than anticipated simply push long-end yields higher.

H.S.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield touched 5.304%, above its 2007 intraday peak of 5.303%, its highest since May 2002, while the 30-Year yield rose over 5 bps to 5.65%.

The technology sector (XLK) was the only S&P sector positive on the month.

Price Performance Data

Benchmark: RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight). Its VARS is zero by definition, since it is what everything else is measured against.

▶

Sort by

Component	RS	VARS 21	1D %	1W %	1M %	% 52W H	ATR Ext	VARS 5
Broad Indicesfixed order, not sorted
SPYS&P 500	61	+5.24	+0.0	−0.7	−0.6	−2.1	+0.0	+1.02
RSPS&P 500 Equal WeightBENCHMARK	51	+0.00	−0.7	−1.6	−5.2	−6.9	−4.8	+0.00
QQQNasdaq 100	75	+8.48	+0.4	−0.2	+3.2	−1.2	+2.7	+1.67
IWMRussell 2000	51	+1.46	−0.4	−1.4	−5.5	−8.9	−4.4	+0.64
DIADow 30	49	+1.48	−0.8	−1.1	−4.3	−7.0	−3.7	+0.62
Market Segmentssorted by RS, highest to lowest
SPHBHigh Beta	79	+7.60	−0.7	−0.7	+3.0	−4.3	+1.4	+1.47
MTUMMomentum	75	+8.99	+0.1	+0.1	+5.7	−8.2	+2.0	+1.88
IWDLarge-cap Value	68	+1.60	−0.4	−1.4	−3.5	−4.7	−3.3	+0.02
IWFLarge-cap Growth	54	+7.63	+0.0	−0.1	+2.1	−3.0	+1.8	+1.71
IWNSmall-cap Value	54	+0.84	−0.7	−1.8	−5.6	−8.1	−5.0	+0.16
IWOSmall-cap Growth	46	+2.41	−0.1	−1.0	−5.3	−10.0	−3.7	+1.13
SPLVLow Volatility	21	+0.03	−1.0	−1.2	−5.6	−10.5	−6.6	+0.50
Unranked
Sector SPDRssorted by RS, highest to lowest
XLKTechnology	91	+8.87	+0.6	+0.2	+5.0	−1.5	+3.2	+1.94
XLEEnergy	83	+4.44	−0.1	−1.4	−3.8	−7.1	−0.4	+1.09
XLVHealth Care	68	+5.50	−1.4	−0.2	−1.2	−4.6	+0.0	+1.64
XLBMaterials	42	+1.13	−0.8	−3.1	−7.6	−10.1	−4.0	−0.32
XLFFinancials	37	+0.13	−1.1	−2.1	−7.5	−8.9	−5.0	+0.19
XLIIndustrials	37	+2.83	−1.3	−1.8	−4.7	−11.3	−4.4	+0.46
XLPConsumer Staples	37	+1.94	−1.5	−2.2	−5.2	−10.6	−3.8	+0.01
XLCCommunication Svcs	28	+5.84	−0.4	−1.4	−0.4	−7.8	−0.2	+0.91
XLREReal Estate	25	+0.07	−1.0	−2.2	−7.3	−11.9	−6.1	−0.02
XLYConsumer Discretionary	17	+1.43	−0.3	−1.6	−6.6	−12.9	−3.7	+0.65
XLUUtilities	12	+1.74	−0.7	−0.8	−6.6	−17.5	−5.8	+1.27
Unranked
Commoditiessorted by RS, highest to lowest
USOWTI Crude	98	+9.31	+1.6	−2.1	+8.9	−10.8	+1.6	+1.23
DBCBroad Commodity Index	92	+8.70	+1.0	−1.7	+3.3	−4.3	+2.4	+0.67
ETHEthereum	91	+8.00	−0.4	−2.8	+9.6	−43.8	+3.6	+1.19
BTCBitcoin	77	+7.98	+0.2	−3.0	+7.5	−33.8	+3.6	+0.98
UUPUS Dollar Index	46	+12.53	+0.1	+0.4	+2.3	−0.1	+5.0	+2.94
GLDGold	34	+2.61	−0.5	−3.1	−6.8	−25.3	−2.1	+0.23
SLVSilver	32	+3.28	−1.8	−6.3	−9.3	−50.4	−1.8	−0.16
HYGHigh Yield Corp Bond	25	−4.59	−0.2	−1.1	−3.3	−5.1	−6.5	−1.50
TLT20+ Year Treasury	14	−0.31	−0.6	−3.3	−5.7	−15.6	−5.4	−1.73
URAUranium	11	+2.68	−0.5	−5.1	−12.4	−36.0	−2.4	+0.40
UNGNatural Gas	9	+6.16	+0.2	−4.6	−1.6	−39.1	+0.2	+0.64
Unranked
Thematic ETFs83 tracked · sorted by RS, highest to lowest
1ARKGARK Genomics	99	+10.14	+0.5	+6.5	+14.8	−2.0	+4.5	+3.55
2USOUS Oil Fund	98	+9.31	+1.6	−2.1	+8.9	−10.8	+1.6	+1.23
3EWYSouth Korea Equities	97	+6.55	−2.3	−1.5	+1.1	−17.3	+1.1	+1.35
4BOATGlobal Shipping	95	+8.78	+1.1	+0.2	+5.0	−5.4	+2.9	+1.90
5SMHVanEck Semiconductor	94	+9.41	+0.3	+1.3	+9.4	−9.4	+2.7	+2.28
6SVIXShort VIX Futures (Volatility)	93	+6.36	−0.9	−0.7	+1.2	−2.6	+2.6	+1.55
7CIBRCybersecurity Software & Infra	92	+7.33	+1.1	−0.9	+2.9	−1.1	+2.4	+1.47
8SKYYCloud Computing	91	+5.82	+0.8	−2.1	−0.8	−3.2	+1.9	+0.81
9WCLDCloud Tech	89	+4.17	+1.7	−2.4	−5.9	−6.7	+1.1	+0.96
10IBBBiotech Megacap	88	+6.64	−0.2	+1.9	+0.7	−3.0	+1.9	+2.77
11QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI	87	+7.43	−0.2	−0.5	+2.5	−10.8	+1.1	+1.54
12ETHAEther Spot	86	+8.04	−0.8	−0.4	+7.5	−44.2	+4.6	+1.65
13XBIBiotech (Equal-Weight)	85	+5.07	+0.6	+1.6	−3.0	−7.2	−0.1	+2.39
14XOPOil & Gas E&P	83	+4.37	+0.4	−1.8	−5.1	−10.7	−0.8	+1.07
15AIQAI Software & Data Processing	82	+6.89	+0.2	−1.3	+1.3	−7.3	+2.1	+1.06
16PBEDynamic Biotech	81	+6.62	+0.1	+1.1	+0.6	−1.5	+1.8	+2.48
17COPXCopper Miners	80	+3.58	−0.9	−2.7	−8.8	−15.3	−0.9	+0.95
18DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity	79	+5.60	+0.7	+3.8	−4.0	−57.7	+0.7	+2.53
19SOLZSolana Spot	77	+8.87	−1.3	+2.3	+12.9	−53.7	+5.1	+2.36
20OIHLarge-Cap Oil Services	76	+1.54	−0.5	−4.4	−11.8	−17.6	−2.7	+0.05
21XHSHealthcare Facilities & Services	75	+5.39	−0.7	−1.1	−1.1	−5.3	−1.4	+0.99
22IBITBitcoin Spot	74	+7.98	+0.0	−1.1	+6.0	−34.1	+4.4	+1.40
23XPHPharmaceuticals (Equal-Weight)	73	+1.93	−1.6	−1.9	−8.0	−12.6	−3.3	+0.87
24BUZZSocial Media	72	+8.32	−0.2	−2.1	+5.1	−6.8	+2.6	+0.76
25GNRNatural Resources	70	+2.47	−0.5	−3.3	−5.2	−8.2	−1.9	−0.64
26DTCRGlobal X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure	69	+4.83	−0.6	−3.6	−2.7	−17.2	−1.7	−0.08
27MAGSMagnificent 7	68	+8.86	+0.4	−0.5	+4.3	−2.4	+3.0	+1.44
28XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight)	67	+2.88	+1.2	−3.1	−7.3	−7.9	−0.2	+0.33
29KUREChina Health	66	+7.68	+2.4	+1.2	+3.8	−10.5	+2.2	+2.38
30EWZBrazil Equities	64	+7.92	+2.1	−0.3	+3.4	−11.4	+1.2	+1.67
31IGVUS Tech/Software	63	+4.97	+1.2	−1.5	−3.2	−9.6	+1.7	+1.18
32FCGNatural Gas E&P	62	+2.75	−0.1	−3.9	−8.6	−13.7	−2.4	+0.17
33GDXGold Miners	61	+3.12	−1.4	−6.2	−10.9	−25.1	−1.0	+0.13
34GUNRUpstream Natural Resources	60	+1.67	−0.5	−3.0	−6.3	−9.2	−2.6	−0.44
35XHEHealth Devices	58	+3.45	−0.7	−0.6	−4.5	−7.1	−1.2	+1.41
36FDNUS Internet Giants	57	+5.32	+0.3	−0.6	−1.4	−3.5	+0.7	+1.41
37ROBOROBO Global Robotics & Automation	56	+6.25	+0.1	+0.3	+0.0	−11.1	−0.1	+1.98
38SILSilver Miners	55	+3.04	−1.3	−6.7	−12.2	−27.9	−1.2	+0.17
39PPHLarge-Cap Pharmaceutical	54	+4.42	−1.5	−0.8	−3.2	−7.2	−1.5	+1.30
40GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure	52	+5.96	−0.7	−1.4	−0.7	−11.4	−1.0	+1.01
41MOOGlobal Agricultural Producers	51	+2.37	−0.8	−3.4	−5.2	−8.8	−2.2	−0.73
42AMLPEnergy MLPs	50	+0.76	−0.7	−3.2	−6.7	−8.1	−4.0	−0.64
43ARKXARK Space & Defense Innovation	49	+5.42	−0.1	−2.4	−1.5	−15.8	−0.8	+0.56
44AGNGGlobal X Aging Population	48	+2.71	−0.2	−0.8	−4.0	−7.3	−2.8	+1.03
45KCECapital Markets & Financial Services	46	−0.74	−0.1	−1.9	−9.9	−10.9	−4.0	+0.57
46ARKFARK Fintech	45	+5.34	−1.0	−3.1	−1.8	−23.1	+1.2	+0.50
47BLOKBlockchain	44	+5.27	−1.2	−6.5	−2.0	−19.3	−0.5	−0.46
48DRIVGlobal X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles	43	+3.89	−0.1	−1.8	−4.0	−22.5	−2.0	+0.84
49GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos	42	−0.28	+0.3	−2.7	−8.5	−11.5	−4.8	−0.36
50PAVEGlobal X US Infrastructure Development	40	+3.64	−0.8	−1.7	−4.0	−13.1	−3.9	+0.70
51KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking	39	+2.78	−0.6	−1.3	−5.6	−11.4	−4.3	+1.00
52XMEMetals & Mining	38	+1.98	−0.3	−5.5	−12.3	−23.7	−2.6	−0.04
53XRPIXRP Spot	37	+7.44	−0.2	−0.5	+6.3	−57.2	+2.7	+1.71
54JETSUS Global Jets (Airlines)	36	+5.80	−1.2	−0.1	−1.0	−17.1	−2.2	+1.76
55GLDGold	34	+2.61	−0.5	−3.1	−6.8	−25.3	−2.1	+0.23
56IAIBroker-Dealers	33	+0.26	−1.0	−3.7	−9.4	−11.1	−4.0	−0.29
57SLVSilver	32	+3.28	−1.8	−6.3	−9.3	−50.4	−1.8	−0.16
58PEJLeisure & Travel	31	+2.26	−1.1	+0.8	−5.2	−10.7	−3.9	+2.31
59LITLithium & Battery	30	+0.26	−0.2	−1.7	−10.4	−25.6	−3.2	+0.87
60DRAMMemory	28	+7.47	−1.5	−2.5	+6.1	−25.8	+1.6	+1.22
61PPLTPlatinum	27	+4.69	−0.4	−3.0	−5.2	−41.1	−1.1	+0.77
62BOTZGlobal X Robotics & AI	26	+5.09	+0.0	−0.2	−1.8	−15.5	−1.0	+1.69
63HEROGlobal X Video Games & Esports	25	+5.78	+0.5	−1.4	−1.0	−21.7	−0.1	+1.09
64CNBSCannabis	24	+3.92	−10.6	−15.1	−8.4	−40.5	−1.3	−3.13
65FXILarge Cap China	23	+3.44	+0.5	−1.0	−3.8	−19.0	−2.7	+1.04
66XRTSPDR S&P Retail	21	+3.65	−0.4	+0.1	−4.6	−12.2	−3.4	+1.82
67ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy	20	+5.53	−0.1	−2.4	−1.7	−28.5	−1.9	+0.76
68IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech	19	+0.75	−1.4	−1.6	−9.8	−21.5	−4.5	+0.92
69MILNGlobal X Millennial Consumer	18	+0.00	−0.3	−0.6	−8.2	−15.1	−4.9	+1.37
70EBIZGlobal X E-Commerce	17	+1.56	+0.6	−0.8	−6.4	−21.9	−4.5	+1.18
71SHLDGlobal X Defense Tech	15	+1.05	−0.6	−3.6	−8.2	−23.5	−5.1	−0.54
72XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense	14	+1.75	−0.8	−3.4	−9.9	−22.3	−5.9	+0.28
73XHBSPDR S&P Homebuilders	13	+3.18	−1.0	−1.1	−6.6	−22.0	−3.6	+1.29

74PALLPalladium	12	+2.44	−1.5	−5.0	−12.0	−44.8	−2.9	+0.24
75URAUranium	11	+2.68	−0.5	−5.1	−12.4	−36.0	−2.4	+0.40
76UNGNatural Gas	9	+6.16	+0.2	−4.6	−1.6	−39.1	+0.2	+0.64
77ORBXGlobal X Space Tech	8	+6.41	+0.0	−1.8	+0.7	−47.1	−0.7	+1.18
78URNMUranium Miners	7	+1.47	−1.6	−6.2	−16.5	−44.1	−3.2	+0.10
79TANInvesco Solar	6	+3.61	+1.2	−2.4	−7.6	−41.8	−3.7	+1.06
80NLRNuclear Power	5	+2.32	−0.7	−4.5	−12.5	−38.5	−3.1	+0.42
81KWEBKraneShares CSI China Internet	3	+3.62	+0.6	−1.4	−5.0	−43.5	−4.3	+1.01
82REMXRare Earths	2	−0.19	−0.8	−6.5	−17.1	−42.4	−4.5	−0.52
83BETZSports Betting	1	−3.49	−1.1	−8.3	−16.0	−31.9	−8.0	−2.51
Unranked
Biggest Moverslargest RS rank changes across all 83, incl. names outside the visible listMeasures RS rank
CLIMBING FASTEST ▲DRAMMemory12 spots72 → 60 ▲EWZBrazil Equities9 spots39 → 30 ▲FCGNatural Gas E&P8 spots40 → 32 ▲AMLPEnergy MLPs7 spots49 → 42 ▲KUREChina Health6 spots35 → 29 FALLING FASTEST ▼CNBSCannabis37 spots27 → 64 ▼ARKFARK Fintech5 spots41 → 46 ▼IAIBroker-Dealers5 spots51 → 56 ▼SOLZSolana Spot5 spots14 → 19 ▼IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech4 spots64 → 68

Price Performance

Sorted by RS, strongest first

Broad Indicesfixed order

SPYS&P 50061+5.24+0.0−0.7−0.6−2.1+0.0+1.02

RSPS&P 500 Equal Weight51+0.00−0.7−1.6−5.2−6.9−4.8+0.00

QQQNasdaq 10075+8.48+0.4−0.2+3.2−1.2+2.7+1.67

IWMRussell 200051+1.46−0.4−1.4−5.5−8.9−4.4+0.64

DIADow 3049+1.48−0.8−1.1−4.3−7.0−3.7+0.62

Market Segmentssorted

SPHBHigh Beta79+7.60−0.7−0.7+3.0−4.3+1.4+1.47

MTUMMomentum75+8.99+0.1+0.1+5.7−8.2+2.0+1.88

IWDLarge-cap Value68+1.60−0.4−1.4−3.5−4.7−3.3+0.02

IWFLarge-cap Growth54+7.63+0.0−0.1+2.1−3.0+1.8+1.71

IWNSmall-cap Value54+0.84−0.7−1.8−5.6−8.1−5.0+0.16

IWOSmall-cap Growth46+2.41−0.1−1.0−5.3−10.0−3.7+1.13

SPLVLow Volatility21+0.03−1.0−1.2−5.6−10.5−6.6+0.50

Unranked

Sector SPDRssorted

XLKTechnology91+8.87+0.6+0.2+5.0−1.5+3.2+1.94

XLEEnergy83+4.44−0.1−1.4−3.8−7.1−0.4+1.09

XLVHealth Care68+5.50−1.4−0.2−1.2−4.6+0.0+1.64

XLBMaterials42+1.13−0.8−3.1−7.6−10.1−4.0−0.32

XLFFinancials37+0.13−1.1−2.1−7.5−8.9−5.0+0.19

XLIIndustrials37+2.83−1.3−1.8−4.7−11.3−4.4+0.46

XLPConsumer Staples37+1.94−1.5−2.2−5.2−10.6−3.8+0.01

XLCCommunication Svcs28+5.84−0.4−1.4−0.4−7.8−0.2+0.91

XLREReal Estate25+0.07−1.0−2.2−7.3−11.9−6.1−0.02

XLYConsumer Discretionary17+1.43−0.3−1.6−6.6−12.9−3.7+0.65

XLUUtilities12+1.74−0.7−0.8−6.6−17.5−5.8+1.27

Unranked

Commoditiessorted

USOWTI Crude98+9.31+1.6−2.1+8.9−10.8+1.6+1.23

DBCBroad Commodity Index92+8.70+1.0−1.7+3.3−4.3+2.4+0.67

ETHEthereum91+8.00−0.4−2.8+9.6−43.8+3.6+1.19

BTCBitcoin77+7.98+0.2−3.0+7.5−33.8+3.6+0.98

UUPUS Dollar Index46+12.53+0.1+0.4+2.3−0.1+5.0+2.94

GLDGold34+2.61−0.5−3.1−6.8−25.3−2.1+0.23

SLVSilver32+3.28−1.8−6.3−9.3−50.4−1.8−0.16

HYGHigh Yield Corp Bond25−4.59−0.2−1.1−3.3−5.1−6.5−1.50

TLT20+ Year Treasury14−0.31−0.6−3.3−5.7−15.6−5.4−1.73

URAUranium11+2.68−0.5−5.1−12.4−36.0−2.4+0.40

UNGNatural Gas9+6.16+0.2−4.6−1.6−39.1+0.2+0.64

Unranked

Thematic ETFs83 tracked

1ARKGARK Genomics99+10.14+0.5+6.5+14.8−2.0+4.5+3.55

2USOUS Oil Fund98+9.31+1.6−2.1+8.9−10.8+1.6+1.23

3EWYSouth Korea Equities97+6.55−2.3−1.5+1.1−17.3+1.1+1.35

4BOATGlobal Shipping95+8.78+1.1+0.2+5.0−5.4+2.9+1.90

5SMHVanEck Semiconductor94+9.41+0.3+1.3+9.4−9.4+2.7+2.28

6SVIXShort VIX Futures (Volatility)93+6.36−0.9−0.7+1.2−2.6+2.6+1.55

7CIBRCybersecurity Software & Infra92+7.33+1.1−0.9+2.9−1.1+2.4+1.47

8SKYYCloud Computing91+5.82+0.8−2.1−0.8−3.2+1.9+0.81

9WCLDCloud Tech89+4.17+1.7−2.4−5.9−6.7+1.1+0.96

10IBBBiotech Megacap88+6.64−0.2+1.9+0.7−3.0+1.9+2.77

11QTUMDefiance Quantum Computing & AI87+7.43−0.2−0.5+2.5−10.8+1.1+1.54

12ETHAEther Spot86+8.04−0.8−0.4+7.5−44.2+4.6+1.65

13XBIBiotech (Equal-Weight)85+5.07+0.6+1.6−3.0−7.2−0.1+2.39

14XOPOil & Gas E&P83+4.37+0.4−1.8−5.1−10.7−0.8+1.07

15AIQAI Software & Data Processing82+6.89+0.2−1.3+1.3−7.3+2.1+1.06

16PBEDynamic Biotech81+6.62+0.1+1.1+0.6−1.5+1.8+2.48

17COPXCopper Miners80+3.58−0.9−2.7−8.8−15.3−0.9+0.95

18DXYZPre-IPO & Private Unicorn Equity79+5.60+0.7+3.8−4.0−57.7+0.7+2.53

19SOLZSolana Spot77+8.87−1.3+2.3+12.9−53.7+5.1+2.36

20OIHLarge-Cap Oil Services76+1.54−0.5−4.4−11.8−17.6−2.7+0.05

21XHSHealthcare Facilities & Services75+5.39−0.7−1.1−1.1−5.3−1.4+0.99

22IBITBitcoin Spot74+7.98+0.0−1.1+6.0−34.1+4.4+1.40

23XPHPharmaceuticals (Equal-Weight)73+1.93−1.6−1.9−8.0−12.6−3.3+0.87

24BUZZSocial Media72+8.32−0.2−2.1+5.1−6.8+2.6+0.76

25GNRNatural Resources70+2.47−0.5−3.3−5.2−8.2−1.9−0.64

26DTCRGlobal X Data Center & Digital Infrastructure69+4.83−0.6−3.6−2.7−17.2−1.7−0.08

27MAGSMagnificent 768+8.86+0.4−0.5+4.3−2.4+3.0+1.44

28XSWSoftware (Equal-Weight)67+2.88+1.2−3.1−7.3−7.9−0.2+0.33

29KUREChina Health66+7.68+2.4+1.2+3.8−10.5+2.2+2.38

30EWZBrazil Equities64+7.92+2.1−0.3+3.4−11.4+1.2+1.67

31IGVUS Tech/Software63+4.97+1.2−1.5−3.2−9.6+1.7+1.18

32FCGNatural Gas E&P62+2.75−0.1−3.9−8.6−13.7−2.4+0.17

33GDXGold Miners61+3.12−1.4−6.2−10.9−25.1−1.0+0.13

34GUNRUpstream Natural Resources60+1.67−0.5−3.0−6.3−9.2−2.6−0.44

35XHEHealth Devices58+3.45−0.7−0.6−4.5−7.1−1.2+1.41

36FDNUS Internet Giants57+5.32+0.3−0.6−1.4−3.5+0.7+1.41

37ROBOROBO Global Robotics & Automation56+6.25+0.1+0.3+0.0−11.1−0.1+1.98

38SILSilver Miners55+3.04−1.3−6.7−12.2−27.9−1.2+0.17

39PPHLarge-Cap Pharmaceutical54+4.42−1.5−0.8−3.2−7.2−1.5+1.30

40GRIDFirst Trust Smart Grid Infrastructure52+5.96−0.7−1.4−0.7−11.4−1.0+1.01

41MOOGlobal Agricultural Producers51+2.37−0.8−3.4−5.2−8.8−2.2−0.73

42AMLPEnergy MLPs50+0.76−0.7−3.2−6.7−8.1−4.0−0.64

43ARKXARK Space & Defense Innovation49+5.42−0.1−2.4−1.5−15.8−0.8+0.56

44AGNGGlobal X Aging Population48+2.71−0.2−0.8−4.0−7.3−2.8+1.03

45KCECapital Markets & Financial Services46−0.74−0.1−1.9−9.9−10.9−4.0+0.57

46ARKFARK Fintech45+5.34−1.0−3.1−1.8−23.1+1.2+0.50

47BLOKBlockchain44+5.27−1.2−6.5−2.0−19.3−0.5−0.46

48DRIVGlobal X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles43+3.89−0.1−1.8−4.0−22.5−2.0+0.84

49GENZGlobal Gaming & Casinos42−0.28+0.3−2.7−8.5−11.5−4.8−0.36

50PAVEGlobal X US Infrastructure Development40+3.64−0.8−1.7−4.0−13.1−3.9+0.70

51KRESPDR S&P Regional Banking39+2.78−0.6−1.3−5.6−11.4−4.3+1.00

52XMEMetals & Mining38+1.98−0.3−5.5−12.3−23.7−2.6−0.04

53XRPIXRP Spot37+7.44−0.2−0.5+6.3−57.2+2.7+1.71

54JETSUS Global Jets (Airlines)36+5.80−1.2−0.1−1.0−17.1−2.2+1.76

55GLDGold34+2.61−0.5−3.1−6.8−25.3−2.1+0.23

56IAIBroker-Dealers33+0.26−1.0−3.7−9.4−11.1−4.0−0.29

57SLVSilver32+3.28−1.8−6.3−9.3−50.4−1.8−0.16

58PEJLeisure & Travel31+2.26−1.1+0.8−5.2−10.7−3.9+2.31

59LITLithium & Battery30+0.26−0.2−1.7−10.4−25.6−3.2+0.87

60DRAMMemory28+7.47−1.5−2.5+6.1−25.8+1.6+1.22

61PPLTPlatinum27+4.69−0.4−3.0−5.2−41.1−1.1+0.77

62BOTZGlobal X Robotics & AI26+5.09+0.0−0.2−1.8−15.5−1.0+1.69

63HEROGlobal X Video Games & Esports25+5.78+0.5−1.4−1.0−21.7−0.1+1.09

64CNBSCannabis24+3.92−10.6−15.1−8.4−40.5−1.3−3.13

65FXILarge Cap China23+3.44+0.5−1.0−3.8−19.0−2.7+1.04

66XRTSPDR S&P Retail21+3.65−0.4+0.1−4.6−12.2−3.4+1.82

67ICLNiShares Global Clean Energy20+5.53−0.1−2.4−1.7−28.5−1.9+0.76

68IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech19+0.75−1.4−1.6−9.8−21.5−4.5+0.92

69MILNGlobal X Millennial Consumer18+0.00−0.3−0.6−8.2−15.1−4.9+1.37

70EBIZGlobal X E-Commerce17+1.56+0.6−0.8−6.4−21.9−4.5+1.18

71SHLDGlobal X Defense Tech15+1.05−0.6−3.6−8.2−23.5−5.1−0.54

72XARSPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense14+1.75−0.8−3.4−9.9−22.3−5.9+0.28

73XHBSPDR S&P Homebuilders13+3.18−1.0−1.1−6.6−22.0−3.6+1.29

74PALLPalladium12+2.44−1.5−5.0−12.0−44.8−2.9+0.24

75URAUranium11+2.68−0.5−5.1−12.4−36.0−2.4+0.40

76UNGNatural Gas9+6.16+0.2−4.6−1.6−39.1+0.2+0.64

77ORBXGlobal X Space Tech8+6.41+0.0−1.8+0.7−47.1−0.7+1.18

78URNMUranium Miners7+1.47−1.6−6.2−16.5−44.1−3.2+0.10

79TANInvesco Solar6+3.61+1.2−2.4−7.6−41.8−3.7+1.06

80NLRNuclear Power5+2.32−0.7−4.5−12.5−38.5−3.1+0.42

81KWEBKraneShares CSI China Internet3+3.62+0.6−1.4−5.0−43.5−4.3+1.01

82REMXRare Earths2−0.19−0.8−6.5−17.1−42.4−4.5−0.52

83BETZSports Betting1−3.49−1.1−8.3−16.0−31.9−8.0−2.51

Unranked

Biggest Moversrank change vs yesterday

CLIMBING FASTEST

▲DRAMMemory12 spots72 → 60

▲EWZBrazil Equities9 spots39 → 30

▲FCGNatural Gas E&P8 spots40 → 32

▲AMLPEnergy MLPs7 spots49 → 42

▲KUREChina Health6 spots35 → 29

FALLING FASTEST

▼CNBSCannabis37 spots27 → 64

▼ARKFARK Fintech5 spots41 → 46

▼IAIBroker-Dealers5 spots51 → 56

▼SOLZSolana Spot5 spots14 → 19

▼IPAYDigital Payments & Fintech4 spots64 → 68

Legend

% 52W Hgreen at or above −2.9%, red at or below −18.0%, neutral in between. A LONG bar means FAR from the high.

ATR Extneutral below 3.0, yellow from 3.0 to 4.9, red at 5.0 and beyond, on the absolute value.

Movesgreen above zero, red below, neutral at exactly zero. Bars scale to the largest absolute value in that column within that group.

RSRS is a percentile rank of an IBD-style weighted composite (40% three-month, 20% each at six, nine and twelve months) measured against the benchmark. The composite subtracts the benchmark's return rather than dividing by it: dividing breaks when the benchmark return is near zero and inverts when it is negative. VARS uses the ATR as it stood on each historical bar, not today’s ATR.

III

Review of Key Themes Synthesis

4 themes: Yields overpower a cooler PCE · Tech carries the tape · Narrow leadership, weak breadth · High bars for earnings and single names

▶

Yields overpower a cooler PCE

A cooler core PCE (+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus) lifted stocks early, but the relentless climb in Treasury yields took its toll, with the 10-year touching its highest level since May 2002. Stocks rolled over in the final minutes: the S&P finished flat (SPY +0.01%), small caps slipped (IWM -0.4%) and the Dow fell 441 points.

▶

Context & Source Read

·Core PCE rose +0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus, and stocks benefitted early in the session.

·The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.304%, above its 2007 intraday peak of 5.303% and its highest since May 2002; the 30-year rose over 5 bps to 5.65%.

·V.K. The early PCE optimism faded as investors saw much of the downside as driven by statistical methodology changes, eyed very hot Eurozone September CPIs, and worried that a Fed hiking less than anticipated simply pushes long-end yields higher.

·The Dow fell 441.13 points (0.86%) to 50,908 after stocks traded in positive territory for most of the day.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

H.S.

Stocks benefitted early as Wall Street digested “cooler” than expected core PCE (+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus) and better GDP, but the relentless rise of treasury yields continued to take its toll.

The 10-Year Treasury Yield touched 5.304%, above its 2007 intraday peak of 5.303%, its highest since May 2002, while the 30-Year yield rose over 5 bps to 5.65%.

V.K.

Treasuries saw further losses, w/10 and 30-year yields rising 5 and 6bp, respectively.

Tech carries the tape

The Nasdaq 100 outperformed (QQQ +0.44%) on a flat S&P, led by chip design and software. SNPS gained 4.8% on a $1B+ multi-year Amazon deal and an OpenAI pact, and HPE rose 3.9% after raising its F27 Networking growth guidance. Tech was also the only S&P sector that finished September higher.

▶

Context & Source Read

·SNPS (+4.8%) announced a $1B+, multi-year deal with Amazon and a multi-year pact with OpenAI to develop GPT-Synopsys; CDNS added 1.9%.

·HPE (+3.9%) raised its F27 Networking segment revenue growth guidance to between high teens and low-20% Y/Y, up from 14-17% before.

·Software names were among the day's gainers: ACN +3.5%, MDB +3.4%, NOW +3.1%, ADBE +2.9%, INTU +2.9%, SNOW +2.8%, CRM +1.9%; INTC rose 3.7% and AAPL 1.1%.

·The technology sector (XLK) was the only S&P sector positive for September; the Nasdaq rose 1.9% for the month and 2.5% for the quarter.

·H.S. The AI story is the main driver for the broader market, and Micron's earnings tonight are its next test.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

V.K.

SNPS announced a $1B+, multi-year deal with Amazon and a multi-year pact w/OpenAI to develop GPT-Synopsys.

HPE raised its F27 Networking segment revenue growth guidance to between high teens and low-20% Y/Y (vs. the prior 14-17%).

H.S.

The technology sector (XLK) was the only S&P sector positive on the month.

Narrow leadership, weak breadth

Leadership stayed narrow. The equal-weight S&P fell 72bp and ended September about 500bp behind the cap-weighted index, small caps slipped (IWM -0.4%), and heavyweights such as WMT, MS, MA and UNH were among the day's losers.

▶

Context & Source Read

·V.K. The last day of September looked like the whole month: decent tech performance, very poor breadth and higher yields.

·The equal-weight S&P tumbled 72bp and finished the month about 500bp behind the SPX.

·For September, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Dow 4.3%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.9%.

·Over the month, Consumer Staples fell more than 5%, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary 6%, and Financials, Materials and REITs 7%, on rising oil and yields.

·Oil rose again today: USO +1.61%, and Brent gained 90bp to about $103.50.

·Large-cap losers included WMT -2.7%, MS -2.4%, MA -2.1%, UNH -2.1% and PLD -2.1%.

·BofA clients sold US equities last week, led by $5.7B of single-stock outflows vs. $0.7B of equity ETF inflows; retail clients were net sellers for a 9th straight week.

·Hedge fund clients were net buyers for a 2nd week and are the only cumulative net buyers in Q3 to date; institutions have typically been big net sellers in October, when mutual funds with 10/31 year-ends do their tax-loss selling.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

V.K.

The equal-weight version of the index tumbled 72bp and was a large laggard, closing out the month overall about 500bp behind the SPX.

The final day of Sept closed out much as the entire month went: decent performance in tech, very poor breadth, and higher yields.

H.S.

Consumer Staples (XLP) declined more than -5%, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -6%, and Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB) and REITs (XLRE) -7% on rising oil/yields.

Bank America said clients sold US equities last week, led by single stock outflows ($5.7B) vs. modest equity ETF inflows (0.7B), and retail clients were net sellers for the 9th straight week.

High bars for earnings and single names

Beating estimates was not enough. JBL fell 10% despite topping FQ4 EPS and sales estimates, and FICO dropped 4.1% after a Bank of America downgrade. FDS rose on earnings, while CAG and NOC fell.

▶

Context & Source Read

·JBL (-10%) posted FQ4 EPS of $4.40 vs. the Street's $4.07 and sales of $10.6B vs. $9.7B.

·V.K. The JBL weakness reflects some very modest margin weakness and extremely elevated expectations.

·FICO (-4.1%) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America, which cut its target to $700 from $1,400 after the FHFA put VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO on the same loan level pricing adjustment grid.

·FDS jumped after beating on FQ4 EPS ($4.52), though it guided FY27 adjusted EPS to $19.25-$19.65, below the $19.72 consensus.

·CAG sank after reporting FQ1 EPS of 41c vs. the Street's 29c and leaving its prior full-year guidance unchanged.

·NOC slumped after being passed over for the new Navy fighter jet.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

V.K.

JBL shares sank on earnings despite healthy top and bottom-line upside: FQ4 EPS of $4.40 vs. the Street $4.07 and sales of $10.6B vs. the Street $9.7B.

Vital attributes the weakness to 1) some (very modest) margin weakness and 2) extremely elevated expectations.

NOC slumped after being passed over for the new Navy fighter jet.

H.S.

FICO was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America, which slashed its target to $700 from $1,400 after the FHFA placed VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO on the same loan level pricing adjustment pricing grid.

LLM Unfiltered Off-Leash

A broad, source-free read on the day — the unconstrained second opinion. ~5 min.

▶

≈ 5 min read · no curated sources · Open-web off-leash read: Claude with live web search (Yahoo Finance, CNBC, Trading Economics, Reuters/Irish Times, Bloomberg, The National, Goldman Sachs trading-desk commentary, and others), anchored to the brief's stored index and mover figures.

The tape: a flat index on top of a busy quarter-end

The S&P 500 ended Q3 essentially unchanged on our tape (SPY +0.01%). That flat number hides a two-speed session. The Nasdaq 100 carried the day (QQQ +0.44%) and small caps slipped (IWM -0.4%). The Dow shed roughly 444 points, per Yahoo Finance. The Dow is price-weighted and heavy in financials, healthcare and industrials, and it has been the market's pressure gauge all month. Yahoo's monthly tally has the Dow and S&P booking September losses while the Nasdaq eked out a gain.

Europe looked the same. The STOXX 600 fell 0.5% and logged its first monthly loss in six (Reuters, via the Irish Times), yet European tech jumped 2.5% to a one-month high. Tokyo's Nikkei added 1.0%.

The open-web read: this was not a risk-off day. It was a sorting day. Money leaned toward software and chip design and away from three places: the physical AI buildout, rate-sensitive financials, and housing plays. Defensive and financial heavyweights, including UnitedHealth, Walmart, Mastercard and Morgan Stanley, slipped about 2-3%. That goes a long way to explaining the Dow's underperformance.

Rates: the front end relaxed, the long end did not

The morning's August PCE report came in softer than feared:

Headline PCE: 3.4% y/y vs 3.7% expected, and +0.2% m/m vs +0.3%.
Core PCE: 3.0% vs 3.3% expected.
ADP private payrolls: 90,000 vs 75,000 expected.

Then New York Fed President John Williams said that after the September hike “there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information.” He still sees one more increase “late this year.” October hike odds fell toward a coin flip, with estimates ranging from the high-30s to about 50%, down from roughly 70% a week earlier. The 2-year slipped to about 4.89%.

The long end sold off anyway. The 10-year rose about 4 bp to 5.29% and the 30-year to 5.63% (Trading Economics, CNBC). That is a bear steepener, meaning long yields rose more than short ones. The market now expects the Fed to pause sooner, but it is not pricing a lower-inflation regime.

Goldman's head of equity trading, Rich Privorotsky, warned on Sept. 29 that the pace of the rise in *real* yields has become too sharp for equities to ignore. Mortgages are where this hits the economy. 30-year fixed averages sit at one-year highs around 7.5% (U.S. News, NerdWallet). That fits with title insurers and industrial REITs landing among the day's laggards.

Flows and positioning: forced selling into the close

Quarter-end mattered. Goldman estimated roughly $33 billion of US pension equity selling around month- and quarter-end. That ranks in the 97th percentile over three years and the 98th back to 2000. On top of that, trend-following CTA funds could sell about $5.3 billion of Russell 2000 futures over the coming week. That goes a long way to explaining why small caps lagged on a day with friendly inflation data.

Breadth tells the same story. One widely cited read had only about 27% of S&P 500 members above their 50-day averages into month-end. The equal-weight S&P has also lagged the cap-weighted index sharply since the mid-August record. In short, a narrow group is holding the index up, and the rebalance selling fell on the broad market rather than the megacaps.

The AI trade split in two

Software and chip design were bought. Synopsys (+4.8%) rallied into its Investor Day on a reported $1B+ multi-year custom-silicon IP agreement with AWS. Cadence (+1.9%) followed. Application software rose across the board: ServiceNow, Adobe, Intuit, Snowflake, MongoDB, Accenture and Salesforce gained about 2-3.5%. Salesforce also announced the Listen Labs acquisition and got an upbeat Oppenheimer enterprise survey. The idea that agentic AI adds to software revenue rather than replacing it keeps winning converts. Intel (+3.7%) and Apple (+1.1%) added megacap-tech support.
The physical buildout was sold. Jabil fell 10% even after beating estimates and guiding fiscal 2027 above consensus. Web commentary focused on heavy capacity spending and margins that arrive late in the year. Cerebras dropped 8.9% as a lockup expiry released about 20 million shares. Constellation Energy (-4%) slid after FERC put a five-month hold on PJM's reliability backstop procurement. Bloom Energy (-4.9%) gave back part of Tuesday's roughly 11% surge, and Vertiv (-2.8%) and Corning (-3.1%) also slipped.

The market is paying for the design layer and the application layer. For the capex-heavy middle of the stack, it wants proof first.

Commodities and geopolitics

Oil firmed (USO +1.61%), with WTI hovering near $90 as the Iran war keeps rerouting Gulf supply. Saudi Arabia has restored about half the flow on its attacked East-West pipeline and pushed Hormuz shipments to wartime highs, while Houthi attacks have gutted Red Sea traffic (The National, Bloomberg).

Precious metals softened (GLD -0.54%, SLV -1.75%), which fits with rising real yields. Precious-metals royalty stocks fell with them. In Asia, China's official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1, its first expansion since June, and the services gauge jumped to 50.2.

What to watch

Micron, after the bell: revenue of $54.23B vs $51.07B expected, adjusted EPS of $33.42 vs $31.61, and a fiscal Q1 revenue guide of about $61.5B vs roughly $57B consensus (CNBC). Watch whether this lifts the whole hardware complex that lagged today, or only memory.
Nike reports Thursday after the close, and options imply about an 8% move.
Friday's September payrolls: consensus is about 90,000 jobs, 4.1% unemployment and wages +3.0% y/y, which would be the weakest annual wage growth since 2021. A soft print locks in an October pause. A hot one reopens the hike debate with the 10-year already above 5.25%.
The contrarian risk: today's software bid rested on softer front-end rates. Long-duration software multiples are just as exposed to a hot jobs number as anything in the market.

Sub-Theme Drill-Down

Semiconductors

The group was sorted, not sold. Chip-design software and equipment outperformed on a large custom-silicon IP deal and an after-hours memory beat, both signs that chip demand is spreading beyond GPUs. The weak spot was newly public AI-accelerator supply facing lockup overhang.

AI Infrastructure

The physical buildout was sold even on good news: contract manufacturing, power and thermal equipment, and fuel cells. Beat-and-raise is no longer enough. Investors are fixated on capex intensity and margin timing and want proof that new capacity turns into profit.

Nuclear

A FERC five-month hold on PJM's reliability backstop procurement hit the AI-power trade. It is a reminder that turning data-center power contracts into cash flow runs on a regulatory clock. Long-end yields at 5.3% add a second headwind for long-duration power assets.

Optics

Fiber and optical-interconnect stocks extended a whipsaw week. They sold off Monday, bounced Tuesday after a bullish sell-side switching forecast, and slipped again today. The demand story is intact, but crowded positioning makes the group react to every capex headline.

Out-of-Favor · Perking Up

Enterprise software

Application software was left for dead on AI-disruption fears earlier this year. It strung together another day of broad gains as investors reframe agentic AI as an upsell rather than a threat. Softer PCE data helped this long-duration group.

China-exposed cyclicals

China's official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion for the first time since June, and services jumped back above 50. That is a tentative green shoot for the long-shunned China-linked industrial and materials complex.

European tech

European tech rose 2.5% to a one-month high even as the broader STOXX 600 fell to its first monthly loss in six. That is early relative strength in a region that has been bleeding under global bond-yield pressure.

Top Movers Data

Top gainer PACB +29.5%·worst TPC −80.7%·across 3 cap bands

▶

Small/Mid$500M–$10B

Gainers

+29.5%

PACBlong-read DNA sequencing

$2.37·$569M

+14.5%

AZULBrazilian airline

$7.90·$1.3B

+12.2%

IVAMASH drug developer

$3.69·$777M

+11.8%

CDNLinfrastructure contractor

$30.60·$559M

Losers

−80.7%

TPCconstruction contractor

$16.33·$858M

−17.4%

GLAScannabis grower

$5.61·$640M

−16.7%

MGRTmicro-cap company

$100.01·$1.6B

−16.1%

FOILnew-energy materials

$16.26·$1.5B

−12.6%

BXBLprefab homes

$3.27·$1.3B

−12.4%

STCtitle insurer

$49.71·$1.7B

−12.4%

EMATcritical minerals

$2.55·$1.8B

−12.0%

CCECLNG carrier shipping

$18.74·$1.3B

Large$10B–$100B

Gainers

+4.8%

SNPSchip design software

$434.94·$79.5B

+3.9%

HPEservers & networking

$63.89·$81.6B

+3.4%

MDBdatabase software

$348.61·$27.2B

+2.9%

ADBEcreative software

$239.94·$92.7B

+2.9%

INTUtax & accounting software

$275.71·$71.6B

+2.5%

NUBrazilian digital bank

$12.66·$59.7B

+2.0%

RCLcruise line

$265.86·$69.7B

+1.9%

CDNSchip design software

$330.19·$89.3B

Losers

−10.0%

JBLcontract electronics maker

$286.86·$33.4B

−8.9%

CBRSAI chipmaker

$177.65·$46.3B

−4.9%

BEfuel cells

$276.98·$85.8B

−4.1%

FICOcredit scores

$592.47·$13.3B

−4.0%

CEGnuclear power

$254.02·$93.7B

−4.0%

FNVgold royalties

$238.11·$47.8B

−2.8%

VRTdata-center power & cooling

$241.31·$95.6B

−2.3%

CCLcruise line

$24.54·$33.8B

Mega$100B+

Gainers

+3.7%

INTCchipmaker

$120.23·$612.8B

+3.5%

ACNIT consulting

$183.37·$108.4B

+3.1%

NOWworkflow software

$134.01·$134.3B

+2.8%

SNOWcloud data platform

$339.56·$116.5B

+2.3%

PANWcybersecurity

$397.31·$317.7B

+1.9%

CRMCRM software

$229.57·$185.4B

+1.4%

LRCXchip equipment

$328.51·$405.3B

+1.1%

AAPLiPhone maker

$333.02·$4.8T

Losers

−5.0%

APPmobile ad tech

$290.43·$102.3B

−3.2%

HOODretail brokerage

$112.50·$104.5B

−3.1%

GLWspecialty glass & fiber

$153.76·$136.7B

−2.7%

WMTbig-box retailer

$103.92·$847.3B

−2.4%

MSinvestment bank

$188.08·$302.7B

−2.1%

MApayments network

$551.47·$493.7B

−2.1%

UNHhealth insurer

$367.08·$336.5B

−2.1%

PLDlogistics REIT

$129.84·$126.0B

Vital & Hammerstone Analysis Compile · V.K. · H.S.

V.K. · H.S. cut — JBL · SNPS · HPE · FDS · CAG · NOC · FICO · CALM. Hammerstone live.

▶

Vital Knowledge · V.K.

Index levels
The SPX finished down 19 points/25bp to 7652 (the intra-day high was 7722), the Dow sank 441 points/86bp, and the R2K fell 11 points/39bp. The Nasdaq outperformed with a 63 point/24bp advance.
Rates drove the fade
Treasuries saw further losses, w/10 and 30-year yields rising 5 and 6bp, respectively. The cooler Aug PCE initially sparked some optimism, but that quickly faded as investors saw much of the downside as driven by statistical methodological changes, eyed the very hot Eurozone CPIs for Sept, and worried that indications the Fed might hike less than anticipated simply push long-end yields higher. Brent advanced 90bp to ~$103.50.
Breadth: very poor
The equal-weight version of the index tumbled 72bp and was a large laggard, closing out the month overall about 500bp behind the SPX. The final day of Sept closed out much as the entire month went: decent performance in tech, very poor breadth, and higher yields.
JBLJBL sinks on a beat
JBL shares sank on earnings despite healthy top and bottom-line upside: FQ4 EPS of $4.40 vs. the Street $4.07 and sales of $10.6B vs. the Street $9.7B. Vital attributes the weakness to 1) some (very modest) margin weakness and 2) extremely elevated expectations.
SNPSHPETech outperformed
SNPS announced a $1B+, multi-year deal with Amazon and a multi-year pact w/OpenAI to develop GPT-Synopsys. HPE raised its F27 Networking segment revenue growth guidance to between high teens and low-20% Y/Y (vs. the prior 14-17%).
FDSCAGNOCEarnings & single-name movers
FDS jumped on earnings after FQ4 EPS of $4.52 vs. the Street $4.37, while CAG sank after reporting earnings (FQ1 EPS 41c vs. the Street 29c, prior full-year guidance left unchanged). NOC slumped after being passed over for the new Navy fighter jet.

Hammerstone · H.S.

Late roll into month-end
After trading in positive territory the majority of the day, stocks rolled in the final minutes to turn negative: the Dow fell 441.13 (0.86%) to 50,908, the S&P 500 fell 18.81 (0.25%) to 7,652 and the Russell 2000 fell 11.04 (0.39%) to 2,796, while the Nasdaq rose 63.52 (0.24%) to 26,861. For the month, the S&P 500 fell -0.4%, the Dow fell -4.3% and the Nasdaq rose 1.9%; for the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 2.0%, the Dow fell -2.7% and the Nasdaq rose 2.5%.
Yields at 2002 highs
Stocks benefitted early as Wall Street digested “cooler” than expected core PCE (+0.2% M/M vs. +0.3% consensus) and better GDP, but the relentless rise of treasury yields continued to take its toll. The 10-Year Treasury Yield touched 5.304%, above its 2007 intraday peak of 5.303%, its highest since May 2002, while the 30-Year yield rose over 5 bps to 5.65%.
Tech the lone monthly winner
The technology sector (XLK) was the only S&P sector positive on the month. Consumer Staples (XLP) declined more than -5%, Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) -6%, and Financials (XLF), Materials (XLB) and REITs (XLRE) -7% on rising oil/yields. Hammerstone calls the AI story the main driver for the broader market and flags Micron earnings tonight as its next test.
BofA flows: clients sold
Bank America said clients sold US equities last week, led by single stock outflows ($5.7B) vs. modest equity ETF inflows (0.7B), and retail clients were net sellers for the 9th straight week. Hedge fund clients were net buyers for a 2nd week and are the only cumulative net buyers in Q3 to date; institutional clients have typically been big net sellers of stocks in Oct., when mutual funds with 10/31 year-ends do their tax loss selling.
FICOFDSCALMStandout names
FICO was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank America, which slashed its target to $700 from $1,400 after the FHFA placed VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO on the same loan level pricing adjustment pricing grid. FDS posted Q4 EPS of $4.52 vs. $4.33 but guided FY27 adjusted EPS to $19.25-$19.65, below consensus $19.72. CALM reported a Q1 EPS loss (-$1.26) vs. a consensus loss (-$0.76) as conventional egg prices dropped sharply.

▶Context & Source Read

·V.K. Rates are driving the market. V.K. says much of the softer Aug PCE came from statistical methodological changes, not genuine disinflation, and says signs of a less-hawkish Fed just lift long-end yields, which hurts equities.

·V.K. Month-end repeated September's pattern: tech leadership on very poor breadth, with the equal-weight S&P about 500bp behind the SPX for the month.

·H.S. H.S. points to the 10-year's push to its highest level since May 2002 and notes yields have climbed with few interruptions since the Iran conflict began in March.

·V.K. Next tests per V.K.: Micron earnings after the close, the Sept manufacturing ISM Thursday (Street 55), and Friday's Sept jobs report (Street +90K vs. +162K).

·H.S. Positioning per H.S. (citing Bank America): retail clients have sold for 9 straight weeks and hedge funds are the only cumulative Q3 net buyers. Institutional tax loss selling typically lands in October.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

V.K.

the final day of Sept closed out in a very similar fashion to how the entire month went, with decent performance in tech, very poor breadth (the equal-weight S&P was a large laggard on Wed and closed out the month overall about 500bp behind the SPX), and higher yields.

The cooler Aug PCE initially sparked some optimism, but that quickly faded

normally dovish monetary policy is great for stocks, but the relationship is upside down in the current environment where rates are driving the financial bus

A lot of the downward pressure in the Aug PCE was a function of statistical methodological changes and not genuine disinflation

JBL shares sank on earnings despite healthy top and bottom-line upside

The steep decline in Jabil shares after earnings speaks to how elevated expectations are for AI-linked companies.

H.S.

After trading in positive territory the majority of the day, stocks rolled in the final minutes to turn negative on the day...and month.

the relentless rise of treasury yields, impacting real borrowing costs/mortgage rates has continued to take its toll on several market participants.

the technology sector (XLK) was the only S&P sector positive on the month

Relentless selling pressure has driven the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to a 24-year high (2002)

Yields have climbed with few interruptions since March when the start of the Iran conflict spurred a surge in energy prices.

Hedge fund clients were net buyers for a 2nd week and are the only cumulative net buyers in Q3 to date.

VII

RIP Analysis Compile · RIP

RIP cut — MU · LQDA · UTHR · GOOG · SNPS · CBRS · CAPR · JBL.

▶

Closing bell: sixth loss in seven sessions
U.S. stocks faded into the close Wednesday for their sixth loss in seven sessions, giving up early gains that followed a cooler-than-expected August PCE. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq added 0.2% and the Dow fell 0.8%. Breadth was ugly, with one sector green and ten red: tech rose 0.6% and staples fell 1.5%. The 10-year settled at 5.26%, up 30 basis points on the week.
MUAfter the Bell: Micron's record quarter barely moves the stock
Micron posted a record fiscal fourth quarter, with adjusted EPS of $33.42 vs. $31.61 expected, revenue of $54.23B vs. $51.07B and gross margin of 87%. The stock still finished flat and gained only +0.6% after hours. It guided to $61.5B in revenue and $38.15 in adjusted EPS, both ahead of estimates, and said memory supply should stay tight through fiscal 2028. But the stock is already up +273% this year, and an 86.25% gross-margin forecast would be slightly lower sequentially.
LQDAUTHRLiquidia's 57% patent wipeout
Liquidia plunged -57.2% to $30.26 in its worst session after a Delaware federal court ruled that its Yutrepia inhalation powder infringed two United Therapeutics patent claims. Rival United Therapeutics jumped +12.5%. Liquidia plans to appeal and said it cannot yet estimate the financial exposure. Both parties must submit proposed remedies within one week.
Macro: cool PCE pushes the next hike to December
Core PCE came in at 3.0% vs. 3.3% expected and headline at 3.4% vs. 3.7%, and traders pushed the next rate hike from October to December. The miss came with an asterisk: the BEA changed how it measures some services, which shaved 0.36 points off July's core reading. Separately, Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%.
GOOGSNPSCBRSAI names: Google up, Synopsys pops, Cerebras slides
Google gained +1.0% and another +1.8% after hours after previewing Gemini 4 Argon to government and cybersecurity partners, though Bloomberg reported some employees questioned its coding performance. Synopsys rose +4.8% on a shared-revenue deal to build GPT-Synopsys with OpenAI, plus a separate $1B-plus Amazon deal. Cerebras fell -8.9% as an estimated 19.4M-share lockup tranche became eligible for sale.
CAPRJBLTrending on Stocktwits: Capricor pops, Jabil drops
Capricor rose 11% after 24-month HOPE-3 data showed deramiocel slowed upper-limb decline in Duchenne patients, though skeptics say open-label data won't erase the FDA's prior concerns. Jabil cratered 10%, its worst day in over a year, even after lifting fiscal 2027 guidance above Wall Street, as a $17.55 EPS guide on $44.5B of revenue failed to clear the bar.

▶Context & Source Read

·RIP Good news isn't being paid: Micron's record quarter and above-estimate guide left the stock flat, and Jabil's raised guide still sent it down 10%.

·The cool PCE print moved the next hike to December, yet stocks still faded to a sixth loss in seven sessions with the 10-year at 5.26%, up 30 basis points on the week.

·Breadth was narrow: one sector green against ten red, with tech up 0.6% and staples down 1.5%, as the Nasdaq added 0.2% while the Dow fell 0.8%.

·RIP The PCE miss carries a methodology asterisk (0.36 points shaved off July's core), and the NY Fed's Williams still thinks another move "may be appropriate late this year."

·On deck tomorrow: Accenture and McCormick report pre-market and Nike after the close. Stocktwits chatter centered on MU, GOOGL and APP.

▶ Raw Source Quotes · all mentions

RIP

U.S. stocks faded into the close Wednesday for their sixth loss in seven sessions, reversing early gains after a cooler-than-expected August PCE surprised everyone into green territory.

Breadth was ugly: one sector finished green and ten red, with tech up 0.6% and staples down 1.5%.

Adjusted EPS of $33.42 beat $31.61, while revenue of $54.23B topped $51.07B. Gross margin reached 87%.

https://stocktwits.com/symbol/MU

Still, the stock has already climbed +273% this year.

plunged -57.2% to $30.26, erasing $40.43 per share. Rival $UTHR jumped +12.5%.

The miss came with an asterisk: the BEA rewrote how it measures legal services, software, and portfolio management, shaving 0.36 points off July's core reading.

Jabil lifted its fiscal 2027 guidance above Wall Street on booming AI data-center demand and still cratered 10% in its worst day in over a year, as a $17.55 EPS guide on $44.5B of revenue failed to clear the bar.

https://stocktwits.com/symbol/JBL

VIII

Gappers / Stocks in Play Awaiting Source

Awaiting gappers / stocks-in-play feed (from Jared).

▶

AWAITING SOURCE · gappers / stocks-in-play feed (from Jared)

TL;DR Capstone

Flat S&P after a late fade: tech carried the tape while the 10-year hit its highest level since 2002 and the Dow fell 441 points.

▶

Flat S&P after a late fade: tech carried the tape while the 10-year hit its highest level since 2002 and the Dow fell 441 points.

A cooler Aug core PCE (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus) lifted stocks early. Then the 10-year touched 5.304%, its highest since May 2002, and a final-minutes roll left SPY flat (+0.01%), IWM down 0.4% and the Dow down 441 points (0.86%).
Leadership stayed narrow. QQQ rose 0.44% on chip design and software, but the equal-weight S&P fell 72bp and ended September about 500bp behind the cap-weighted index. Tech (XLK) was the only S&P sector higher for the month.

Themes in play

Yields overpower a cooler PCETech carries the tapeNarrow leadership, weak breadthHigh bars for earnings and single names

Stocks that matter

SNPSchip design software

Rose 4.8% after announcing a $1B+ multi-year deal with Amazon and a multi-year pact with OpenAI to develop GPT-Synopsys, leading the day's chip-design and software rally.

HPEservers & networking

Gained 3.9% after raising its FY27 Networking revenue-growth guidance to high-teens to low-20% from the prior 14-17%.

JBLcontract electronics maker

Fell 10% despite beating on FQ4 (EPS $4.40 vs. $4.07; sales $10.6B vs. $9.7B). Vital blamed modest margin weakness and very high expectations.

FICOcredit scores

Dropped 4.1% after BofA downgraded it to Neutral and cut its target to $700 from $1,400, because the FHFA put VantageScore 4.0 and Classic FICO on the same loan-level pricing grid.

FDSfinancial data & analytics

Jumped on an FQ4 EPS beat ($4.52), even though its FY27 adjusted EPS guide of $19.25-$19.65 came in below consensus.

NOCdefense contractor

Slumped after being passed over for the new Navy fighter jet.